According to Business Georgia, the optimism of the ruling political force is not at all shared by the former Minister of Finance, expert on economical issues Lekso Leksishvili. In the first quarter, the total GDP decreased by 5,9 percent which, in his opinion, speaks of the fact that the coming year is going to be rather tough. "The budget loss will surely exceed the expected level. Accordingly, the growth of the budget is based upon very optimistic calculations but, unfortunately, there are no grounds for them at the moment".

So far as no one has been able to invent a reliable method of managing the current economic crisis, the disputes relating to the economic perspectives are quite explainable. Meanwhile, the Georgian newspapers have spread a rumour about President Saakashvili's intention to replace the prime minister. This has been reported by VZGLYAD with reference to the All News Tbilisian newspaper. According to the newspaper, Prime Minister Nika Gilauri will resume his post of Minister of Finance on account of the budget non-performance in May-June.

The post of the head of cabinet will be contested by two representatives of Saakashvili's immediate circle, Mayor of Tbilisi Gigi Ugulava and Minister of Justice Zurab Adeishvili. According to the Georgian periodical, the latter has got more chances. The question is, why replace the prime minister if the budget is not only performed but over-performed? Even considering the fact that these are only rumours, it is obvious that there is no smoke without fire.

Besides, there has been a long-term tendency of the hasty termination of premiership in the Georgian latest history. On the whole, the post of prime minister is not a lucky one in Georgia. Saakashvili's friend and associate, the Rose Revolution ideologist Zurab Zhvania died in February 2005. According to the official version, he died because of the carbon monoxide gas that leaked from am improper space heater. They are still demanding an independent investigation in Georgia, for the official version is considered to be unpersuasive.

Still, the next Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli (a member of Zhvania's team) managed to hold the post for a record term of two years. He resigned on his own will, having later created an oppositional party called Movement for Fair Georgia. Nogaideli's successor Lado Gurgenidze occupied the post for one year. Grigol Mgaloblishvili lasted for several months and resigned in unclear circumstances. According to the media, the president threw a cell phone at him at the heat of the moment.

The current Prime Minister Nika Gilauri became head of cabinet this February. If the future of a prime minister directly depends upon the citizens' welfare and not only upon the budget performance, then, the staff changes are as inevitable as death or taxes.

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Irina Ptashkovskaya