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Friday, 21 October 2016


Confederacy: a trap for Cinderella

2010-07-22 10:20

6428.jpegA politician's and, especially, a head of state's main task is to define the domestic and foreign problems of the country and seek the ways and means of their settlement. Georgian president seems to stand out of this row of figures, which fact is confirmed by his statements and suggestions voiced at the meeting with Azerbaijan leader last Sunday. Actually, Saakashvili offered Aliyev not just to strengthen mutual contacts but to become friends against neighbours. In Batumi, he again expressed the idea of establishing an Azerbaijani-Georgian confederacy that he voiced for the first time last year and stated that "the two countries are on the terms that go beyond the limits of common


partnership and ally relations".

  A confederacy is a form of state when the countries that comprise it fully retain their independence and have their own government bodies; at the same time, specially consolidated bodies are established only to coordinate the actions for certain purposes, for instance, for military, foreign policy and economical ones.

 Any analyst would say that setting up a confederacy would enormously damage the balance in the South Caucasian region and the unanimity of processes in the regions, both in the region being part of Russia and the one controlled by other states. It resembles the situation of 1918-1920 when Georgia also spoke for forming a confederacy in the region, and the only difference was that the same proposal was made by Armenia.

 The basic purpose of Saakashvili's proposal is to shut off Russia's influence in the region. Georgia realizes that the Caucasus is one of the key regions where Russian, Muslim, European and American interests intersect, so it will always play an important role in Russia's foreign and domestic policy. On one hand, the Caucasus is the "soft underbelly" of our country and the destabilized situation here may quickly lead to serious complications in Russia in general. On the other hand, Russia's efficient policy in the Caucasus is able to improve our country's foreign position not only in the region but also in relationship with such countries as Iran and Turkey. The Caucasus is both the sensible spot and a platform for the potential active game.

However, Georgia is unable to resist Russia alone. It has already made such attempts. It needs an ally having common problems with Georgia. Equaling the problem of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to the Karabakh problem, the Georgian side is trying to get double dividends from rapprochement with Azerbaijan. Saakashvili's proposal is also connected with the demographic situation in Georgia where the Azerbaijani are going to make up the population majority in some regions in the coming decades.

Does Azerbaijan need the confederacy with its anti-Russian policy? It should be noted that the official Moscow does not recognize such alliance as NKR or the local "elections" hold one of these days. In many aspects, Russia's relations with Azerbaijan may serve as an example of a forward-looking policy. Despite the number of problems, Russia and Azerbaijan display unparalleled pragmatism in their mutual relationship, although both sides have got enough reasons to make claims against each other. Nevertheless, strategic interests and common sense prevail.

 Azerbaijani government realizes that Moscow cannot build up relations with Azerbaijan at the expense of its communication with Armenia and vice versa. Azerbaijan is already a GUAM member and still, Russia-Azerbaijan relations have been positive for almost ten years, covering various fields of economy, politics, military science and culture. Will Azerbaijan put it all at stake to please Saakashvili and his anti-Russian policy?

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