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Sounding the Georgian initiative2010-08-07 00:54
In any country of the world, a political analyst is likely to excite interest only when he promotes a crazy idea being, however, effectively substantiated. Azerbaijan is no exception: all of a sudden, a group of political specialists expressed active approval of Saakashvili's idea about the two countries' confederacy.
Azerbaijani political analysts share an opinion that the idea of establishing a Transcaucasian confederacy of Georgia and Azerbaijan is very interesting and deserves attention. There is nothing new here: while the country's executive officers are hesitating and the parliament is keeping silent, it is those being active in political problems and able to make a political capital that should be immediately pushed forward.
According to expert Ilgar Mamedov, such a confederacy is mutually beneficial and "fits in with the idea of a single Caucasus with no boundaries"; however the idea is still formless and its realization is going to run against multiple obstacles. "If we show proper persistence, the process might be initiated", - political expert stated.
It looks like he does not know that Georgia is soon going to face serious financial problems. According to Georgian Economic Research Center, Georgia will need $95 mln in 2010, $121 mln in 2011, $257 mln in 2012 and, finally, $771 mln in 2013 to clear its debts successfully.
Does Baku need cooperating with a bankrupt country? Unlike its problem neighbor, Azerbaijan is a safe state, which is also facing territorial problems, although things have not yet got as far as bloodshed like in Georgia. Why would politologists want to unite these two countries?
Azerbaijan is a sheet anchor for Tbilisi. Georgia will obtain Azerbaijan's resources, as well as access to eastern markets, while for Baku, it is rather a disputable step to use Georgia as a gateway to the West and energy resources export. That is not the matter of price but the matter of expediency.
Let us remind you that at the joint press conference with Ilham Aliyev in Batumi held on July 18, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili stated that relationship between Georgia and Azerbaijan is beyond partnership and the countries should set up a confederacy. Let us also underline that the same idea was aired by Saakashvili last year during his visit to Baku.
In the opinion of Azerbaijani political analyst Akhmedogly, a confederacy is a suitable type of two countries' union, for each of them retains full freedom and there are only 3 or 4 questions requiring a joint decision.
The export assured that creating such type of an association will enhance stability in the region, though he stressed that it is impossible to cover the entire Transcaucasia, so long as Armenia's destructive activity does not allow close integration processes in the South Caucasus". Now, that's where the shoe pinches: the anti-Armenian trend... They want to be friends but they want to unite against someone else.
However, Aliyev provided a low-key reaction to Saakashvili's idea. Confederative relationship between Baku and Tbilisi may be developed in certain aspects - nothing more, and it is only Saakashvili who enjoys wishful thinking.