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Wednesday, 10 March 2010

Analytics
  • Lobio won’t buy lobby 2010-03-10 17:17
  • Taking up Nogaideli’s path 2010-03-04 13:37
  • Khloponin: three problems and four clusters 2010-03-01 23:30
  • Tbilisi in search of money 2010-02-27 22:34 One of the theses of yesterday’s speech delivered by President of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili in the parliament goes as follows: the emigrants are returning to Georgia. The statement sounds doubtful, considering the fact that the statistics on migration is rather disputable. It is not only the Georgian experts that are talking about it; the Statistics Department does not provide any data as well. The president’s statement rather resembles an auto-training session. One of these days, the officials expressed hope to get billions of investments from their former fellow countrymen. As to Mikhail Nikolaevitch, he stated that the authorities are going to announce discounts on real estate property in order to attract the capital of the Georgian expatriate community. So far, the representatives of the construction companies do not say anything about the boom of accommodations acquisition by the former fellow countrymen. 
  • Aimed at Georgia 2010-02-25 23:41 Strategic and transit opportunities of the Black Sea as well as occurrence of hydrocarbons keeps luring Americans forcing Washington to pursue an offensive policy in the counties along the coast including Romania, Bulgaria where deployment of Patriot missiles is planned and Georgia, the old favorite. Today Tbilisi is greeting an overseas delegation to discuss the cooperation strategy.
  • What Karabakh “roadmap” will show 2010-02-19 17:12 Kazakhstan as the OSCE chair is ready to propose a Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement plan to Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is not clear yet what the so-called “roadmap” will include since neither side agreed to concessions in public. It is believed that the document will focus on social and humanitarian aspects of people’s life in the unquiet zone.
  • Abkhazia craving for Union State 2010-02-17 17:07 At the moment Abkhaz President Sergey Bagapsh is on an official visit to Moscow. The meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is scheduled for today. Bagapsh has already announced Abkhazia’s plan to join Russia-Belarus Union State and the Customs Union between Moscow, Minsk and Astana. Will Sukhum’s ambitious plans come true?
  • Georgia and Russia change “nuclear” polarization 2010-02-17 14:11 Iran and Georgia seem to adopt a unique vision after Russia’s inclination towards sanctions against Teheran. Iranians that used to condemn the Georgian aggression now emphasize they are not ready for Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s recognition. This is not the first prick against Russia over the recent months. Tbilisi, however, is truly offbeat flirting with Iran that blackmails Russia.
Analytics

The Caucasian chalk circle

2008-12-04 10:10 Two recalcitrant nations decided to live independently. The authorities in Tbilisi did not give their consent. But so what? Georgia's economy did not suffer from this in any way, its culture even less so. There are many smouldering conflicts in today's world: Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Karabakh, Kurdistan and the Basque country. So the conflict by the southern spurs of the Caucasus mountains could have smouldered on without bloodshed for at least another twenty years, in practice without affecting anyone's interests, until the optimal way out appeared with time. Abkhazia could have waited, South Ossetia could have waited, Georgia could have waited. Unfortunately, Saakashvili couldn't wait. Whilst fighting to retain his post as president, he promised too much, in particular to see in the upcoming New Year in Sukhumi. He didn't manage to make the upcoming one. The next one turned out to be 2009. The proud politician really didn't want to go down in the history of his beloved homeland as a boastful liar. So he chose the perfect moment, helpfully coinciding with the start of the Beijing Olympics, for his attack on little Tskhinvali...

So what will happen now? How will it all end?

The current situation will probably become permanent. Blood that has been shed is more enduring than a border outlined by politicians. For the time being, only Russia and Nicaragua have recognized the two small countries. A few further states are likely to recognize them in the near future, if only to spite the United States.

But do the small Caucasian countries need mass recognition? They still won't pull in forty embassies, and the slightly sour Abkhazian mandarin that Russians know so well is not likely to oust the sweet Spanish one with a cool label on the side from the European markets. Of course, Psou and Lykhny are very nice wines - but in Greece, Italy, France, Hungary, even Germany, they are more than happy to drink their own wines. There's no space for either Abkhazian or the Ossetian wine in any store in the West.

Just a few years ago the principle of the inviolability of borders helped maintain stability in Europe. The decision by the Western countries to seize Kosovo from Serbia has torn the only clamping ring off the barrel. What one side does can be replicated by another. I'm afraid that a whole series of alarming surprises lie in store for us.

I am an optimist. And I hope that the Caucasian chalk circle won't exist for a lifetime. If the people in power change, then Tbilisi, Moscow, Sukhumi and Tskhinvali will realize that it is more costly for themselves to fight with their neighbours, that a common economic and cultural space is far more important than political ambitions and ethnic grievances. And then the old accounts will lose any meaning. After all, the independence of the green hill called the "state of San Marino" does not stop the Italians from sleeping easily at night, and the French are even proud of the famous casino in the independent principality of Monaco. I think that in the future, people in Tbilisi will begin to regard the sovereignty of the small republics with just as much equanimity as people in Moscow have about the independence of Georgia itself.

Leonid Zhukhovitsky

 

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