The Caucasian chalk circle
2008-12-04 10:10 Two recalcitrant nations decided to live independently. The authorities in Tbilisi did not give their consent. But so what? Georgia's economy did not suffer from this in any way, its culture even less so. There are many smouldering conflicts in today's world: Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Karabakh, Kurdistan and the Basque country. So the conflict by the southern spurs of the Caucasus mountains could have smouldered on without bloodshed for at least another twenty years, in practice without affecting anyone's interests, until the optimal way out appeared with time. Abkhazia could have waited, South Ossetia could have waited, Georgia could have waited. Unfortunately, Saakashvili couldn't wait. Whilst fighting to retain his post as president, he promised too much, in particular to see in the upcoming New Year in Sukhumi. He didn't manage to make the upcoming one. The next one turned out to be 2009. The proud politician really didn't want to go down in the history of his beloved homeland as a boastful liar. So he chose the perfect moment, helpfully coinciding with the start of the Beijing Olympics, for his attack on little Tskhinvali...So what will happen now? How will it all end?
The current situation will probably become permanent. Blood that has been shed is more enduring than a border outlined by politicians. For the time being, only Russia and Nicaragua have recognized the two small countries. A few further states are likely to recognize them in the near future, if only to spite the United States.
But do the small Caucasian countries need mass recognition? They still won't pull in forty embassies, and the slightly sour Abkhazian mandarin that Russians know so well is not likely to oust the sweet Spanish one with a cool label on the side from the European markets. Of course, Psou and Lykhny are very nice wines - but in Greece, Italy, France, Hungary, even Germany, they are more than happy to drink their own wines. There's no space for either Abkhazian or the Ossetian wine in any store in the West.
Just a few years ago the principle of the inviolability of borders helped maintain stability in Europe. The decision by the Western countries to seize Kosovo from Serbia has torn the only clamping ring off the barrel. What one side does can be replicated by another. I'm afraid that a whole series of alarming surprises lie in store for us.
I am an optimist. And I hope that the Caucasian chalk circle won't exist for a lifetime. If the people in power change, then Tbilisi, Moscow, Sukhumi and Tskhinvali will realize that it is more costly for themselves to fight with their neighbours, that a common economic and cultural space is far more important than political ambitions and ethnic grievances. And then the old accounts will lose any meaning. After all, the independence of the green hill called the "state of San Marino" does not stop the Italians from sleeping easily at night, and the French are even proud of the famous casino in the independent principality of Monaco. I think that in the future, people in Tbilisi will begin to regard the sovereignty of the small republics with just as much equanimity as people in Moscow have about the independence of Georgia itself.
Leonid Zhukhovitsky
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