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Non-recognition policy will backfire on Georgia2011-03-28 18:33
Georgian authorities naively pretend that the problem of Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's independence will be resolved in their favor. Expecting this, Tbilisi does nothing to start a dialogue with Tskhinval and Sukhum and makes aggressive statements against both republics instead. This policy pursued by the country leaders causes bewilderment even in the most loyal part of the population. However, what Abkhazia and Ossetia gets from Georgian politicians are hysterical accusations of "separatism".
Georgia's official mass media fuss about a recent statement by deputy FM of Russia Andrey Denisov on recognition of Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's independence expected soon in a number of countries. According to him, Tskhinval's and Sukhum's sovereignty will not be recognized on a large scale, but some countries are seriously thinking over the issue.
It is clear that for Georgian leaders this outcome is absolutely unacceptable. Any recognition hits a serious blow on the wall of lies that Saakashvili regime built around Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, there is nothing official Tbilisi can do here - mainly through the lack of sustainable policy toward two republics. The notorious concept of "Involvement Through Partnership" designed to enhance economic, social and humanitarian relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia was a still born project that provokes laughter.
In reality, the problem of recognition or non-recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia does not depend on Tbilisi's position. European, Asian, African and American leaders are playing a cunning game maneuvering between Moscow and Washington and paying little attention to the smiling president of Georgia who wants to appear as a serious player of global importance. Besides, recognition itself is no more a matter of principle for the world community and both republics. This question deals more with the image. Foreign businesses (not only Russian companies) came to Abkhazia and South Ossetia immediately after August 2008. For people who make money the sovereignty issue is not number one.
Unfortunately, there are not enough sound-minded people in Georgia's ruling elite as we see by the country's pitiful state of economy. Paradoxically, representatives of Saakashvili regime are absolutely satisfied with the state of affairs around two republics. They want to appear miserable sufferers offended by aggressive Russia without mentioning the grief Georgian troops brought to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
On the other hand, passivity can fireback on Georgian leaders, as Paata Zakareishvili, a well-known Georgian politologist thinks believing that the policy of isolation toward Abkhazia and South Ossetia will make the world sympathize with two republics. "If Georgia keeps isolating Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in 10 years' time the world community will have a desire to repeat what took place in Kosovo not long ago. For the time being the non-recognition principle works all right, but how long will that continue? - the expert added. According to Zakareishvili, the main danger is recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Belarus.