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No-intrigues elections2011-06-06 18:11
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin made his way to the funeral of the Abkhaz President Sergey Bagapsh through the thunderstorm front in a helicopter. When the light was finally found in the clouds, the helicopter landed in the airport of Sukhum. The reason for the Russian PM to come to the Caucasian republic was very sad; however, one could not help talking politics. The head of the RF government stated the necessity of supporting large projects in Abkhazia and expressed hope that the neighbourly relationship between the Abkhaz and Georgians would be mended.
would be mended.
Yesterday, Sergey Bagapsh was buried in his family cemetery in the village of Dzhgerda of Ochamchira region of Abkhazia. His heritage will be imprinted but, anyway, he left a visible trace in the establishment of normal relationship between Abkhazia and Russia.
Next presidential elections will be held in the republic in three months. Let us put it directly, there is no much intrigue in them. Leaders of the political space are obvious: it is current acting President Alexander Ankvab, Prime Minister Sergey Shamba and leader of the opposition Raul Khajimba.
At first sight, no special changes in the country's policy are expected to follow the presidential elections. However, that's a false impression. In fact, the elections may end up not only in the change of decorations in the power Olympus of Sukhum but also in significant political changes that may acquire regional scale.
Thus, Putin's visit is not just a tribute of respect towards the late Abkhaz president.
Bagapsh went to heaven, having left the recognized Abkhazia to the future head of the republic. Sergey Vasilyevitch has always had an image of an utmost "pro-Russian" politician in the media and his latest "pro-Russian policy" in Abkhazia has often been called the policy of concessions.
However, Bagapsh was a pro-Abkhaz politician in the first place. He was a master of compromise, a "living agreement". Few people can remember that he started his foreign-policy strategy with searching for the areas of common interests with Georgia. In 2005, a so-called "Bagapsh's" plan came into existence: it implied the strategy of settling the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict. This was a fundamental document representing a step-by-step instruction of establishing normal relationship between Abkhazia and Georgia.
At that time, current leader of the opposition Irakly Alasania was the official Sukhum's partner in negotiations. The negotiation process was close to a stage that could be called a "breakthrough" but Saakashvili stalled the process abruptly, having chosen a forceful strategy of conflict resolving. That's not our guessing; that's a quotation from a speech of Irakly Alasania who placed the responsibility for disrupting the negotiation process on the leader of Georgia.
At that time, Mikhail Saakashvili was just strengthening his positions in power and his illusions of a quick victory over Abkhazia were fed by his success in Adzharia and Kodorskoye Gorge. Having entered the office of the former head of Adzharia Aslan Abashidze, Saakashvili stated that the next office he would enter will be Sergey Bagapsh's. Thus, negotiations were initially impossible.