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Tbilisi Became Hostage of Karabakh2011-06-24 12:45
The aggravation of the relations between Yerevan and Baku is becoming more evident. The situation in Nagorny Karabakh which is the subject of a long-running argument between the two Caucasus republics risks switching to an armed conflict stage. Only at the beginning of the year the international crisis group warned that the feverish armament of Azerbaijan may come to a bad end. Georgia immediately inserted its five kopecks having declared that it can not remain uninvolved in case of the war recommencement.
The hope for a peaceful outcome of the negotiations called for by the Minsk group of the OSCE is collapsing like a house of cards. Territorial debates increasingly deadlock Armenia and Azerbaijan which are practically ready for the use of force if it allows each of them to penetrate deeper into the boundaries of Nagorny Karabakh. Recently Baku keeps increasing military expenditures which are estimated as billions. Lately they have grown by 45% and exceeded $3 billion that is about one fifth of the state budget of the country. At the same time Ilkham Aliev does not hesitate any more to threaten Serdj Sargsyan with a military strike which proves that the cease-fire agreement of 1994 is nothing but a common paper having no force to deter the
Exactly for this reason the exchanges of fire have renewed near the boundaries of Nagorny Karabakh. Day by day they separate Armenia and Azerbaijan from the democratic international community fearing an outrageous breakdown of its plan on the organization of a chain of the First World countries' satellites. It is not a secret that the possibility of the interference in the conflict of Turkey, which is a NATO member, can give up for lost the Caucasus as a sphere of influence of the West. In addition, Yerevan hopes for the help of Moscow which undertook to defend Armenia's independence and sovereignty. Least of all would Europe want to get into such a bloody pot. The pipelines via which it receives Azerbaijanian oil and gas might become targets of attack. Therefore the threat of renewed war puts a question about a serious split within the North Atlantic Alliance which recently reaches a consensus quite infrequently.
Germany has repeatedly stood in favor of the termination of hostilities committed by the block under the auspices of "humanitarian bombings". If Ankara which bears its own grudge against the European Union gets beyond the block's control, things are in a bad way. However, such a turn of events plays quite into the hands of Armenia itself, of Nagorny Karabakh and of their allies. Despite Baku has been a member of the European Union for almost ten years, it is becoming more and more estranged from the democratic principles of development of strategic regions that is the responsibility of the European Union as well.
And Georgia, suddenly having found itself in the center of such tumultuous events, feels both joy and sorrow. On the one hand, it conducted a total rearmament and has half a mind to grapple with somebody in a bloodbath, forcibly bringing Abkhazia and South Ossetia back under its own control. On the other hand, Georgia is seized by fear because Armenia will be helped either by the Nagorny Karabakh army or by the Russian Federation armed forces, from which the Georgian warriors got their pennyworth in 2008.