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Aliev and Sargsyan to accept principles?2011-06-27 21:31
Today Kazan is hosting a summit that can result in a historic agreement on settlement of the Nagorny-Karabakh conflict. Armenian president Serge Sargsyan and Azeri leader Ilham Aliev shall have a meeting mediated by Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. This is not the first meeting of this format. Western mass media predict a breakthrough while competent experts are confident that the summit will be fruitless
The planes of Azeri and Armenian leaders have already landed in Kazan. Under unprecedented pressure of the international community they are expected to sign a document that can launch settlement of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict. If it happens, this will be a real historic breakthrough.
Armenian and Azeri leaders will see a sheet of paper containing simple things: six principles that, as the global community believes, will help to settle down the most complicated conflict in Eurasia. These principles are:
One: to return territories around Nagorny Karabakh to the control of Azerbaijan.
Two: to assign an interim status to Nagorny Karabakh ensuring guarantees of self-government and security.
Three: to provide a corridor connecting Armenia with Nagorny Karabakh.
Four: to enable all refugees to return to places of origin.
Five: to determine final legal status of Nagorny Karabakh in the form of legally binding expression of will.
Six: to provide international security guarantees and hold a peacekeeping operation.
These six principles are a result of years of work of OSCE Minsk group, a mediator of the conflict settlement. To formulate these theses and determine the basis on which the current situation in the region can be solved, one visit to the problem region is enough.
Yet, presently Russia, the USA and France - co-chairs of Minsk Group - face a most difficult task to make Sargsyan and Aliev sign the principles above. Sarkozy and Obama unlike Medvedev won't go to Kazan. Nevertheless, both of them have done their best to achieve a positive result of the summit. Sarkozy wrote a letter to Sargsyan calling Armenia "a sister of France" cajoling the Armenian leader into signing the document. Obama reminded that both countries have children growing and they need a secure future. Let's see if persuasion will have any effect.
Yet, we don't believe it will be easy to force both presidents to adopt the document. Most probably, both Sargsyan and Aliev want to move solution of the Karabakh issue off the dead center. Their million nations hate each other to death. The world community will have to influence consciousness of these nations so that common Armenians and Azerbaijanis wanted to reflect on these six principles above.
The world community was wrong defining priorities to solve the Karabakh issue. It's believed that things will change for the better if two stubborn presidents sign the paper. In reality, it should have been a decade of work with population of hostile countries.
Ilham Aliev is president of Azerbaijan whose father was the founder of the country. Can it be possible that he will give Karabakh to Armenians as "a gift"? Despite the fact that Karabakh has nothing to do with Azerbaijan and such a "gift" will help return huge territories presently controlled by Armenians and send hundreds of thousands refugees to live there - Aliev will not want his name to be associated with the loss of Nagorny Karabakh. The next leader of the country will hardly be ready for this sacrifice too.