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Nagorny Karabakh: fighting or making peace?2011-07-27 20:48
The smoldering Nagorno-Karabakh conflict each month threatens to grow into a large-scale war. Baku and Yerevan with Stepanakart exchange harsh statements and are not eager to make concessions. Unfortunately, the continuing aggression in the region plays into many hands - those of the participants and third-party observers, for it allows making some political and sometimes material capital.
Mutual threats of the Armenian and Azerbaijani parties sound more and more often. The parties of this wordy warfare have long been subject to the "domino effect" and any promise "to kick off all the Armenians from Karabakh" is followed by an immediate response "Let Artsah free!" However, Azerbaijani Vice PM Ali Gasanov has recently stated in an interview to Harriyet Turkish paper that Baku is ready for open military actions in the region. "If the process of the conflict settlement goes on like that we will declare war", - he promised, adding, though, that his country won't act without its foreign partners' support, Turkey in the first place.
Besides, Gasanov naturally understands that unleashing a conflict is impossible without taking into account Russia's position, which has got its military bases in the territory of Armenia. "Turkey is unable to provide military aid to us but it supports us politically. Anyway, I don't think Turkey will enter in a war with Russia", - vice prime-minister of the Azerbaijani government explained.
His words sound quite natural both for the Armenians and the Azerbaijani. Anyway, they sound natural for those interested in further heating of the tension around Nagorny Karabakh. Political and military elites in Baku and Yerevan are trying to gain extra dividends, precipitating the international quarrel not without pleasure. The two states' mass media are trying to play on the same field. To define the origin of an informational portal, it is not even necessary to look at the domain, ".az" or ".am", it belongs to; it's enough to run through the newsline, where the reports about the "bad" representatives of the opposite party are much longer that those about the fellow countrymen's achievements. The information war damages peaceful negotiations no less than constant firing at the border. Besides, the rhetoric of various interested persons in the international arena significantly differs from the statements made "for domestic consumption". This is typical even of leaders of the two countries, Ilham Aliyev and Serge Sargsyan, who day by day lose the chance of entering the history as the people who have put an end to the multi-year confrontation or at least made some steps in this direction. Both of them are severely pressed by the part of the political elite which is traditionally called "hawks". Armenian president is especially dependent on the sentiments in his country and Ilham Aliyev is not that free in his opinion and actions as well.
So far, all hopes are put on the international middlemen, Moscow above all. Unfortunately, the recent trilateral negotiations held in Kazan with the participation of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as head of the Russian state Dmitry Medvedev, did not result in signing any definite agreements. However, they proved that no war would be unleashed between Baku and Yerevan in the nearest time, for both the conflicting parties have displayed their understanding of one simple fact: the conflict in Nagorny Karabakh has long since stopped being their internal affair. Still, no one ventures to answer the question of whether to fight or make peace.