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Myths and legends of Georgian analysts2011-09-09 15:34
Mamuka Areshidze, a well-known politologist (Georgia), quite frequently comments on events in Abkhazia claiming that the country will face a "severe autumn and winter". His remarks are less biased, but myths are still alive. We decided to take a thorough look at "Moscow's factor" in Abkhaz politics that the authorities in Tbilisi wrap in all sorts of legends and stories. We also want to see how severe the coming political season will be in Abkhazia.
Mamuka Areshidze's recent forecasts really look more realistic than before. But even now he, like the majority of Georgian analysts, can't abandon an obsessive idea that Abkhazia's political process is managed from Russia.
However, he would not speak otherwise. Only one month ago he tried to convince that Moscow is working with ethnical minorities in the republic persuading them to elect Sergey Shamba. Now Areshidze says (not being able to take his words back) that Russia has carried out a very delicate work with these people cajoling them into electing Ankvab. Naturally, all that is nonsense.
"The Russian factor", indeed, is a traditionally most interesting point of elections in Abkhazia. Certainly, Moscow is not indifferent to the political process in that country. Analysts that don't know the subject well enough, think Moscow has a unique attitude to Abkhazia trying to subdue it. In reality things are different. At the time of the recent election Alexander Ankvab (the winner) and Sergey Shamba had their supporters in Russia. Most probably, Shamba had more. It wasn't noticed that Raul Hajimba was actively supported in Russia, though we can't know everything about it.
Who are these people and forces that support politicians in Abkhazia? In case with Sergey Shamba it's the Kolesnikov brothers, one of them presently a State Duma deputy. They took an active part in Shamba's campaign making no secret of it. Kolesnikovs were born in Abkhazia. Most probably, Sergey Shamba who has serious connections in the Ministry of foreign affairs, State Duma etc, was also supported by individual representatives of the "middle class" of the Russian establishment. All that can be referred to as "Moscow's trace" if not for one "but".
Alexander Ankvab, who has never been viewed as "the Kremlin's creature", was openly supported by the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies, a public scientific and research organization for information and analytical support of supreme legislative and executive authorities". Another fact is even more curious: "The institute was established in 1992 on the decree of the President of the Russian Federation".
So where's the notorious Kremlin's trace? In the State Duma or among presidential experts?
In reality, any politician or expert who wanted to support this or that candidate at the Abkhaz election, was governed by personal sympathies. There was no centralized position in Moscow.