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Sargsyan rejects Mishiko2011-10-06 12:49
Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko was not the only one who distinguished himself at an Eastern Partnership summit held in Warsaw last week. Serge Sargsyan ignored the EU's invitation to a trilateral meeting with Ilham Aliev and Mikheil Saakashvili. It seems neither Yerevan's blockade on the part of Tbilisi, Baku and Ankara, nor proposals from Western politicians can break the Armenian leader's link with Kremlin.
Intricate relationships between Caucasian states is an old story. Nationalistic sentiment nurtured by Washington inside Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia has brought unpredictable consequences. The anti-Russian campaign has failed, now growing into hostility toward each other. The Karabakh conflict that took place immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union has not been settled yet. Inviolability of territorial borders the United States tried to take advantage of has brought the Yalta-Potsdam system to ruin since Baku, Yerevan and Ankara have their own vision where borders should lie.
It should be acknowledged that neither the British Empire, nor the USSR and the USA have managed to ensure peace in Caucasus for one simple reason. Every time they defined borders of these three states they left one side dissatisfied. Even Washington's call to self-determination brought wars in Nagorny Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Yet, one thing has not been learned yet in America: after the West turned its back on Russia, it had to flirt with the Islamic world which might seem unpredictable toward capitalists but always meets reached agreements.
Thus, Russia has three partners in South Caucasus: Iran, Armenia and Turkey. Mikheil Saakashvili considers Azerbaijan as the friendliest state and dreams of a confederation. In order to get a pat on the back, Georgia joined in harassment against Yerevan. The economic and diplomatic blockade by Ankara, Baku and Tbilisi must force Armenian leader Serge Sargsyan to a compromise proposed by Ilham Aliev and Rejep Yerdogan, i.e. to acknowledge that Armenians were not subject to genocide in the Ottoman Empire and to return Nagorny Karabakh under the protectorate of Azerbaijan.
Armenia that has no access to sea is doomed to slow degradation unless the situation changes. Naturally, talks must be brought to an end. It's a different question what result this "consensus" will have. Despite Ilham Aliev's threats that he is ready to apply military force to settle the conflict, Moscow takes a very good care that interests of the Collective Security Treaty Organization member states be respected. Azerbaijan is not a CSTO member. Yet, it is a member of the CIS whose borders are protected by the post-Soviet military union. That means any military intervention - on the part of Baku or NATO - is out of question. This fundamental principle of Kremlin's policies was repeated by Russia's NATO envoy Dmitry Rogozin in the run-up to a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels: "We simply ask NATO not to park their tank at our door. This is our only request. Military bases have special boxes for that".
Thus, Serge Sargsyan's demarche in Warsaw, i.e. his refusal to meet with leaders of Azerbaijan and Georgia, is logical. Yerevan has demonstrated again that influence of a pro-Western sentiment in the country is no more than dreams of Washington and its vassals. Shift of accents between the Armenian president and Mikheil Saakashvili started to get obvious two months ago. Despite the agreement on mutual protection of investments and simplified border procedures, the gas pipe that brings Russian blue fuel to Armenia is periodically closed for "inventory" as a clear message whom Mr. Sargsyan should not quarrel with.