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Islamic march to Georgia2011-11-30 10:28
The West has decided to change its tactics in the Caucasus. Since the aggressive policy of separation of the Caucasian republics from Russia had not given the desired fruit, Washington has decided to go other path. Now it is singing praises through Carnegie Endowment expert Thomas de Waal, talking about the advantages of sovereignty from the Soviet mother country. In his opinion, the South Caucasus will soon become mature and they will decide themselves how to live.
After Russia recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and Tskhinval and Sukhum have repeatedly stated that their return to the bosom of Georgia is impossible, Washington decided to fight Moscow with its own weapons. Instead of setting Caucasian republics at loggerheads, it starts to behave like a cat with a mouse. The West is gently and insistently hammering into the heads of the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, that during twenty years they have matured enough for their own decisions.
Apparently, according to Washington, these decisions should forever avert the South Caucasus from Russia. However, such confidence can backfire not only for the Western countries which have decided to divide spheres of influence in the region. Carnegie Center expert Thomas de Waal believes that today Iran and Turkey - Islamic Republic, quite hostile towards Yerevan or Baku - are much closer to Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, rather than Moscow.
"First, these countries are not "newly independent" as they were often characterized in the 1990s, and 20 years is the age when you have to look forward, not backward. Moreover, the term "post-Soviet" is obsolete: The Soviet Union formed its politics and culture, and the South Caucasus is now disclosing its geography at the crossroads of Russia, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Asia", Thomas de Waal surely lies.
However, he immediately stipulated that today the process of transition to market economies and democratic governance regime has waned due to local circumstances. In fact, it is difficult to imagine such number of frozen conflicts in the Caucasus. A small piece of land has mired in internecine wars, just like in the days of feudalism. However, not only Georgia, which Mr. de Waal, for some unknown reason, considers the most developed republic in the region, has troubles with the territory. And even Nagorno-Karabakh doesn't seriously damage the image of the Transcaucasian countries. Baku and Tehran are on the brink - both in foreign policy and with each other.
Azerbaijan is currently holding about 80 percent of the economy in the South Caucasus, but Turkey and Iran are not going to leave the region at the mercy of Tbilisi, even in spite the praises by the West. In addition to Azerbaijan and Georgia, who are waiting for the U.S. support, nobody else wants to communicate with the United States, since the price, paid for temporary protection, is too high. A majority of local residents are concerned about the socio-economic issues. Without the development of relationships with the largest market and the partner - Russia - it's wash-out. And here's why.