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Syriac scenario for Ahmadinejad2012-01-23 12:57
In light of the increased likelihood of armed conflict, developments in Syria - the nearest ally of the Islamic Republic - are becoming increasingly important for Iran. Today, the Syrian authorities have assessed the damage from the EU embargo on supplies of oil at $ 2 billion. Now, the same embargo against Tehran is prepared. Meanwhile, in Syria, there is a full-blown civil war. No one can now predict how the development of such a scenario in Iran will turn.
Despite the fact that Damascus is the most consistent and old ally of the Iranian ayatollahs, the difference between the two countries is enormous, so it is not entirely correct to compare them. First of all, they have fundamentally different political regimes. If Iran is a real theocracy, led by a religious leader, Rahbar, then Syria is a secular state with a president. Nevertheless, the fact that the two countries are led by the Shiite representatives of Islam makes create an affinity between them. President Bashar al-Assad belongs to the Shia-Alawite. But then again, if Shiites in Iran is dominant, the main population of the Syrian Republic profess Sunni Islam.
That is why it is unlikely to expect that the Syrian scenario may repeat in Iran. But the opposition to the regime of ayatollahs, consisting mainly of secular Westernized youth, is gaining strength in the Islamic republic.
So it makes sense to remember the developments in Syria.
Indeed, the current situation, which could be called a civil war, started from a completely innocuous actions, an example of which may be found in the recent past of Iran.
The protest shares started from the flashmob of several hundred people who had been demanding reforms and fight corruption, which took place in the streets of Damascus on March 15. The next day, the demonstration outside the building of local Interior Ministry under the slogan "Freedom for political prisoners" took place. Such events took place in Iran after the highly disputed presidential elections, won by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a second time.
At first, few people took the Syrian protests seriously, since the socio-economic situation in the country was much better than in other Arab countries. But after the demonstrations spread to other cities, the protest was joined by the Islamists - the Muslim Brotherhood, which was the main driving force in the rest of revolutions of "Arab Spring", and the first blood was spilled in Sanamayn, the situation has deteriorated. So on March 29, President Bashar al-Assad was forced to dismiss the government and to cancel the "emergency"regime on April 20, which was in force in the country for nearly half a century. However, these measures have not helped to stop the escalation of violence. And after the military, deserted from Syrian army, have formed the "Syrian Liberation Army", one can speak of the beginning of the Civil War on Libyan script. However, it is clear that Assad won't repeat the fate of Gaddafi, since the UN Security Council now won't authorize a foreign invasion. Russia and China won't allow military intervention in the internal affairs of Syria.