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Apocalypse will start in Syria?2012-01-31 21:25
The Arab League has suspended activities of its mission in Syria, now in a civil war. The situation in the republic will be the focal point of discussion at the AL summit in Bagdad late in March. However, by that time the country may undergo considerable changes. Already now there are symptoms that armed confrontation of Bashar Assad's government against the forces of opposition supported by the West will grow into a territorial conflict likely to involve other states of the Middle East.
Struggle between governmental troops and insurgent forces has now moved closer to the capital of Syria. Yesterday the so-called Syrian Liberation Army seized eastern suburbs of Damascus. However, today these lands were abandoned under pressure of Assad-loyal units. Escalation of violence is taking place against the background of a wait-and-see position of other Arabian states that decided to suspend activities of its monitoring mission in the country last week. Thus, not only Syrian neighbors but the entire global community has no chance to evaluate the situation in the country objectively. Actually the government of Bashar Assad has created no obstacles for monitors. Presently the Arab League is focused on preparation of the summit in Bagdad scheduled for the end of March. As expected, the Syrian problem will be the central point in debates.
"Of course, we were surprised that a number of Arab countries, primarily Gulf States, refuse to engage their monitors and revoke them from the group after the decision to prolong activities of the monitoring mission for another month was approved by the government of Syria", - Russian FM Sergey Lavrov resents. - We would like to understand what is going on. Why is this useful instrument, i.e. mission, is treated this way? In the middle of tensions in Syria the number of monitors should be increased. Their work must not be stopped".
There is little to make speculations at. Persian monarchs, Saudi Arabia in particular, wouldn't mind accelerating the fall of Iran's main ally in the region. Basically, this is what heads of the Middle Eastern diplomacy meant working out a plan of peaceful settlement in Syria based on the results of the AL mission. Number one clause of the plan was resignation of Bashar Assad. No wonder he refuted this plan.
Presently, this can be achieved only in a form of direct military involvement of the West under the Libyan scenario that is in no way accepted by Russia and China. Neither Moscow nor Peking want UN sanction to intervene in Syria's domestic affairs. Basically, this can be done without sanctions. Then, however, the Western community should be convinced that Assad regime commits crimes against humanity. For these purposes the monitoring mission is not good enough. That is why the AL preferred to withdraw for a two-month period.