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Azerbaijan compels Armenia to peace?2012-07-18 17:30
Frequent violations of the ceasefire on the front line between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as frequent visits of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and members of other organizations to the region, has once again actualized the discussion of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. International observers, as well as local residents, are concerned: will the full-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan take place?
The territory of Azerbaijan gives shelter to more than 1 million refugees and forcedly displaced persons. Despite the best efforts of the country's leadership to accommodate these people, most of them are looking forward to returning to their ancestral lands occupied by Armenian forces. In this regard, as well as given the tensions between the countries both on the frontline and at a diplomat level, risk of renewed hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan is rather high. The fact that each of the parties, relying on its own logic, expects to appear in a better position, also contributes in increasing of tension.
Over the past few years, Azerbaijan's economy has almost achieved the fastest development in the world. Although economic growth is achieved generally due to the growth of mining and energy exports, Baku stakes much on non-oil sector in order to ensure diversification of the economy. In addition, based on economic strength, Baku is improving its military power, a political analyst Gabil Huseynli says. Today Azerbaijan's military budget to 2 times exceeds the total state budget of Armenia. All this is done with a single purpose: in case of failure of the negotiation process, Azerbaijan must be prepared to return the lands by force. There is a term such as "peace enforcement", and if Armenia does not want to liberate the occupied lands of Azerbaijan and sign a peace treaty, therefore, they must force the aggressor to peace, the political scientist concludes.
Armenian side states that in the event of renewed hostilities, Russia will support Armenia, since both countries are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. But we must remember that the fighting took place, and may be renewed on Azerbaijani territory, which is currently under occupation, a political analyst Murtaza Hasanov says. Russia may support Yerevan only in the event of military aggression against Armenia. These are different things, and specialists are perfectly aware of this. And the purpose of the talk about the intervention of the CSTO is to defraud the public of Armenia, Hasanov says.
What is opinion of Azerbaijani public about this? To answer this question, we have talked with the Azerbaijani youth. It turned out that all respondents without exception believe that Azerbaijani lands, Armenia has occupied, should be released. To do this, the international community should put pressure on Yerevan. But if this does not happen, they must liberate the land by force. "They have occupied our lands by military means, and today the Armenian government boasts of it and refuses to release them", one of the respondents said.
Such is the opinion of young Azerbaijanis. However, we do not want war. Our parents lived in peace. And we hope the conflict will be resolved peacefully and our land will be released voluntarily. In this case, we can live with the Armenians in peace and harmony again. We want this and we are ready to this, the vast majority of respondents says.