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North Caucasus is endangering Russia?2012-08-23 17:38
Surge of tension in the North Caucasus has once again shown how fragile and unstable situation in the region is. A series of terrorist acts has covered almost the entire North Caucasus. The myth about the elimination of hotbeds of separatism and terrorism has been dispelled. So what has happened? What is the reason for the current situation in the region and what are the consequences? GTimes reporter spoke about this with Azerbaijani political scientist Mubariz Ahmedoglu.
The situation in the North Caucasus can be called the second wave of rampant separatism and terrorism in the region, political scientist, Director of the Center for Political Innovations and Technologies Mubariz Ahmedoglu believes. During the first wave, which lasted until the end of the second Chechen war, separatism was based on religion. Certain forces from abroad (mainly from Saudi Arabia and Turkey), unrelated to the governments of those countries, were providing full support to the movement. Of course, the leadership of these and some other Arab countries were aware of this support, but preferred not to interfere in this process. Over time, these groups passed under the control of the West, which has further aggravated the situation. Fortunately for Russia and for the entire
region, the situation was taken under partial control. This is due not only to a successful military operation, but also improvement of partnering with the West, Ahmedoglu says.
Now, the North Caucasus is experiencing the second wave of separatism, but it is somewhat different from the first wave, Mubariz Ahmedoglu says. The second wave includes all of the old traits, since despite all the efforts Russia has failed to eliminate any of the traits typical for the first stage. Along with this we can assume that the separatists now receive assistance directly from the states, interested in this movement. In his opinion, this may happen due to Russia's position on the situation in Syria and around it.
Today, the West, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are interested in a speedy resolution of the Syrian problem and Bashar Assad's resignation. The main force hindering this is the Russian Federation. This is straining relations between Russia and the West which is supporting the separatists in order to weaken Russia. Thus, the present events in the North Caucasus can be called separatism which is being fed up from abroad, he says.
The second wave of separatism also includes an additional element associated with Iran, which is aggravating the situation, Mubariz Ahmedoglu says. Iran reasonably believes that Moscow does not believe in Tehran's anti-Russian position. Against this background, Iran has managed to take under the "control" part of the Azerbaijanis (especially those from the southern regions of the country) living in Russia. Certain forces in Azerbaijan are trying to counteract this, trying to pull these people from the influence of Iran. But these attempts are unsuccessful so far.
Also Mubariz Ahmedoglu advised not to forget about the problem of the Circassians. According to the analyst, the Circassians have not started actions, but can start at any time. This nation has experienced a severe shock and now is waiting for an hour "X" to claim their rights.