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War bogy or a sheet anchor for Tbilisi2009-06-23 14:14
Lately a possibility of a new conflict in South Caucasus has been actively discussed in the world information space. And this is not a point of view of politicians only. Is there a risk of August 2008 repetition?
Rumors on a second series of confrontation in the explosive region have been on since the events of last August. Tbilisi keeps blaming Moscow for alleged violation of Medvedev-Sarkozy plan and deployment of military bases in the territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In reply Georgia receives well-grounded reproaches for its attempts to ignore the new reality in the region - the existence of two new states, desire to involve the West in solving problems in the Caucasus and concentration of armed forces on the borders with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Until recently mutual reproaches grew or subsided like waves.
However the events of last week, statements of diplomats, evidence of the witnesses and new near-border incidents have made the issue of a possible conflict in the Caucasus top news. It all started with the Security Council's failure to come to terms on the OSCE mission's extension in the zone of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict. Now UN monitors are leaving the region. Commenting on the situation Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin emphasized: "We have an impression in Tbilisi and maybe in some other capitals it was decided to search for solutions in instability, - Kommersant newspaper quoted. - This is what scares us. We are concerned over the possibility of new political and probably military adventures". According to Karasin Georgia's current leaders will immediately interpret these facts as "an appeal to a new political advance" on the positions of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Russia.
Synchronically on June 30 the representatives of the OSCE peacekeeping mission start their pull-out from the region together with the UN monitors. The reason is the same: discussing the organization's new mandate Russia urged for consideration of the new geopolitical situation in South Caucasus but the West easily forgot last year's attack of the Georgian troops on Tskhinval and out of its self-seeking considerations was oriented on support of Tbilisi's territorial claims.
The EU mission that remains in the region has displayed extreme inefficiency for the time it has been there.