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President’s autumn2008-12-01 15:45
There have been lots of rumors about the Georgian leader lately. They are connected with the perspectives of the current president that do not seem really bright to the politologists.
According to Georgia's ex minister for conflict settlement Georgy Khaidnrava, now a prominent oppositionist, the August events have considerably damaged the authority of Saakashvili. In the current situation the president will hardly keep the post before the expiry of his powers.
"After the August catastrophe Saakashvili is a political victim, - Khindrava stated to Interfax on November 25 without a shadow of a doubt. - Today he understands clearly that his days are numbered that is why he is clinging to power in every possible way to guarantee his security. We repeatedly warned the western politicians that coming to power of Saakashvili and his team was dangerous not only to Georgia but they did not listen to the Georgian opposition. It was him to escalate tension between the West and Moscow".
However many politologists both Georgian and Russian are not that categorical in their judgments. In particular, Head of the Caucasus department of the CIS Countries Institute Mikhail Akexandrov remarks: "Days of Saakashvili as a politician are certainly numbered but he will most probably last till the end of his term. Internal pressure accompanied by social strain will grow in Georgia, and Saakashvili will be forced to resign ahead of time. Probably already next year."
And now we'll mention the forces that might accelerate this resignation. First of all there are active crews of the oppositionists. At the meetings they were holding on November 7 in Tbilisi the participants persistently demanded early reelections.
"Today we start a new wave of civil confrontation that is going to last till we come to conduct of fair elections, - the leader of the opposition Conservative party Kakha Kukava stated. - We lent a hand of partnership to the authorities in order to achieve national concord and reconciliation but the only answer we got was "No".
In these circumstances apparently it is time to think who can or will be Saakashvili's successor. Surprisingly the interests of Moscow and Washington coincide here. The most suitable pretender to the post of Georgia's president for both is Nino Burdzhanadze. According to the Federation Council Chairman Boris Mironov "Burdzhanadze's patriotism will not let her solve Georgian problems for the account of others". As for the USA the diplomats as usual are advocating highly directional movement to genuine democracy for Eastern Europe. As the US ambassador to Georgia John Tefft confessed: "Burdzhanadze's party seems most promising from the point of view of reinforcement of democratic institutions in the republic".