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Japanese catastrophe menacing Caucasus2011-03-21 15:54
After the tragic events in Japan, the scientists turned their eyes on the Caucasus. The crust has been very active these last months in the region. Since the beginning of the year, there have been five earthquakes that could be easily felt. Citizens of the Caucasian countries fear a Japanese scenario. The media have published the commentary given by a scientist of the Pacific Institute DVO RAS Valeriy Abramov. In his opinion, significant earth shocks can be expected in the Caucasus. Recurrence of the 1988 events when the north of Armenia was destroyed is also possible. GeorgiaTimes asked the specialists about how they examine the seismic activity in the Caucasus.
In his forecasts, Valeriy Abramov refers to the data of a research carried out according to Zelus method allowing to define the discharge cycles, that is, the cycles of the geologic process - preparation, subsurface activation and the discharge of the seismic focus. However, this type of research was developed by the Far-East scientists and is aimed at revealing a threat of an earthquake, primarily in this region. According to seismologist Lidia Slavina, in their forecasts about the Caucasus the scientists refer to the seismic resistance map issued in 1997.
Like the rest of the regional countries, Georgia shakes regularly. Caucasian mountains are relatively young, the process of their growth goes on and the crust in this region is very movable. There were several earthquakes in the South Caucasus within the last several months.
A week ago, on March 11, there was a light earthquake in the central and eastern parts of Georgia, as well as in South Ossetia. The magnitude in the mountains higher than the South-Ossetian village of Java was 3.2. Earth shocks could also be felt in Georgia, in Karelsky region.
In three days, March 14, there was an earthquake of a similar intensity in Azerbaijan. Here, shocks could be felt in a number of regions at once. The Seismic Service Center at the National Academy of Science recorded an earthquake with the magnitude of 4,4 at 11:53, local time, 18 kilometers northwards of the town of Shirvan (about 70 kilometers westwards of Baku). The force of shocks in the epicenter was 3,5 according to the 12-point scale and 3 in the towns of Shirvan and Gajikabul. There is no data on the victims or damage. Besides, according to seismologists, there were two more shocks in the territory of the country with an epicenter located 35 kilometers northwards of Shirvan: an earthquake with a magnitude of 3,5 at 12:27 at a depth of 35 kilometers and an earthquake at a depth of four kilometers at 12:15, local time.