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War with Iran may overwhelm Azerbaijan?2012-08-15 17:22
Military invasion of Iran would adversely affect the entire region, and Azerbaijan will inevitably be drawn into the conflict. This is the view of the candidate of political sciences from Baku Elshad Mirbashirogly. Regardless of how events will unfold in the event of a war, the economic situation in the region will be destabilized, and a huge wave of refugees from Iran will rush into Azerbaijan. Most of them are ethnic Azerbaijanis, whom there are more than thirty million people in Iran.
If there is a war against Iran, Azerbaijan cannot stay away, despite Baku's desire. According to political scientist Elshad Mirbashirogly, in this case the country has to build its position depending on the particular situation. At present, Azerbaijan is supporting good-neighborly relations with all neighboring states (the only exception is Armenia which has occupied 20% of Azerbaijani territory - Ed.). For this reason, Baku will continue the economic, cultural and political cooperation with Iran. And in the event of hostilities they must make an additional award. With regard to the provision by Azerbaijan its territory for an attack on Iran, Elshad Mirbashirogly believes this cannot happen under any circumstances. This may involve the country directly into the hostilities, and no one wants this.
Speaking about the essence of the conflict over Iran's nuclear program, the political analyst believes despite all the reservations, Iran's ultimate goal is making nuclear weapon. For Iran this is a matter of national security. Tehran remembers well the lessons of Iraq war and believe that only nuclear shield can save the country from the U.S. and its allies' invasion. World superpowers do not accept the current regime in Iran trying to actively influence the political situation in the country. Of course, in this situation, Iranian leadership is trying to counteract this pressure. In this case, Tehran has only two ways: either Iran acquires nuclear weapons, or agrees conditions of the Western countries, the analyst believes.
By the way, last reports in the Western media refute the idea that Iran is preparing to launch production of nuclear weapons. According to the U.S. National Security Council, Tehran has not even made a decision on its development. This is said in the report of this office, prepared on the basis of the combined U.S. intelligence report on the Iran's nuclear program. Representatives of the National Security Council consider there is still time and opportunity to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels with the help of international pressure on Tehran.