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Russia will not allow the USA to “despoil” it through Georgia20.10.2008 | 16:13
The Day.Az correspondent's questions are answered by the independent Georgian political analyst Arno Khidirbegishvili.
Mr. Khidirbegishvili, despite the fact that it is two months since the fighting ended, the situation continues to remain extremely tense - I have in mind separate incidents, leading to the death of civilians, and relations in general between Georgia and Russia. In your opinion, what is going on here?
The main thing that everyone should understand as an axiom is that Russia will never relinquish the Caucasus and Georgia to the USA. They've been in Georgia for 200 years, since 1783. OK, let's leave these 200 years for a moment, and take it from 1921: for 70 years Russia has been investing its interests and funds there, whilst America has only been doing this for four and a half years, following the ‘Rose Revolution' which it organized there in 2003. "Russia has calloused workers' hands!" said Vladimir Putin on 3rd October, at a joint press-conference with Timoshenko - this was a message to all the former USSR republics.
Yes, but the former USSR republics - aren't they now independent states, with the power to decide their own fates?
I'll explain: the ‘chastity belt', which in the Middle Ages jealous husbands who were away from home for long periods of time put on their Oriental beautiful wives, is akin to this Security Belt, with which Russia is surrounding itself as it rises up from its knees. And the most intimate place which this belt is meant to protect (sorry for this naturalism!) is down below - the underbelly. And as we know, Russia's underbelly is the Caucasus! Therefore Russia will not allow the USA to ‘despoil' it through Georgia, which has wanted to obtain a more attractive ‘overseas partner' in the guise of the USA. Russia patiently observed the process of the United States' manufacture of a "key" to this "chastity belt" for four and a half years. But the moment came when the USA intended to "insert this key into the key-hole", which ended up being South Ossetia... So, had they opened the ‘chastity belt' with the help of the "Georgian key" and got inside it, that is into the South and North Caucasus, the USA and its allies would have at one and the same time ‘despoiled' the ‘Russian beauty', that is Russia itself! That's the political reality, whether it shocks people or not, and real-politicians should always bear it in mind...
What preventative measures did Russia take against this?
Now, having taken advantage of the adventure undertaken by the Georgian authorities in the Tskhinvala region, Russia has carried out reconnaissance in battle. Following the UN's Geneva Conference in October, the US presidential elections in November and the meeting of the NATO Foreign Ministers in December, at which we will definitely not be presented with a Plan of Action for NATO Membership, everyone in the world will forget about us, Abkhazia and South Ossetia (without any particular need to "wind up" Russia!). These will be the last surges of reaction from the so-called world-wide ‘democratic community'- the USA and the European Union, expressed in various resolutions. After which Comrade Mauser will make its response - that is Russia, for which time will play into its hands...
What do you think Russia will do?
For all these four years Russia has vainly hoped to establish friendly relations, indeed a partnership with Georgia, or at the very least that Georgia would carry out a policy of state neutrality, which did not happen. Unfortunately, Georgia did not become a neutral country, like Finland or Switzerland... And therefore for the third and last time (once and for all!) Russia will enter Georgia (the first time was in 1783 with the Georgiev Treaty, the second time in 1921 with Sovietization and the USSR)!
And what will be grounds for this "third coming"?
There may be several: The first possible scenario is internal civil strife, which is so characteristic of us Georgians. The same thing could happen now as in 1993, when the Military Council of Ioseliani-Kitovani-Siuga under the chairmanship of Shevardnadze appealed to Russia with a request for help and Admiral Baltin's ships made a landing which saved them from their own (from the military units made up of allies of the exiled president Gamsakhurdia, who were already approaching Kutaisi). That is to say that the United Opposition will provoke unrest, and the country will end up on the brink of civil war. And at its (the United Opposition's) request (or even without!), Russian troops will enter the entire territory of Georgia with the aim of bringing an end to the unrest and establishing civil peace.
The second possible scenario is a war among criminals. After President Saakashvili is overthrown in Georgia, a criminal war will break out: criminal bosses, who had fled the country during these years, will return and, alongside corrupt former officials and businessmen with a grudge against Saakashvili, who confiscated millions from them, will stir up criminal disputes, just as in the 1990s. After which the Temporary or Military Council (essentially, one and the same) will appeal to Russia with a request to impose constitutional order and defend the civilian population.