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Will the Armenian-Turkish protocols trigger a war?

07.04.2010  |  10:25

- They are obliged to say so to gain the people's trust in their military power.

- The Armenian experts suppose that these statements are used to blackmail Armenia in order to attain fundamental concessions concerning the settlement of the conflict in Nagorny Karabakh...

- There is such a factor, indeed. However, this step is primarily aimed at the Azerbaijani people in order to consolidate the country before the external enemy.

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Director of Institute of the Caucasus of Yerevan Alexander Iskandaryan feels equally calm about the possibility of another war concerning Nagorny Karabakh. He avoided making any forecasts as to the ratification of the protocols and did not find significant grounds for a war.

- April, 24 is a deadline for the Turkish party. If the protocols are not ratified before this date, the situation will change afterwards and it will be clear whether the Armenian-Turkish negotiations will be held or not. We shall see. However, I rather doubt that the protocols will be ratified in the near future.

- So, the threat of a war mentioned by Dashnaktsutjun is out of the question, isn't it?

- Normally, such things do not lead to any military actions. Launching a war requires certain conditions, including the state of the armed forces and their appropriate ratio to the enemy's forces, so that the war could bring benefit. It is necessary that the politicians also desired a war. I see no reasons to start any military actions at the moment. A kind of balance has been maintained between the confronting forces since May 1994, which is attributed to the balance of forces. As to the politicians' statements, they should be treated as such, nothing more.

- What objectives does Dashnaktsutjun pursue, in your opinion?

- Dashnaktsutjun withdrew from the ruling coalition because it was opposed to the Armenian-Turkish protocols. It shifted to the opposition because of this very issue, that is why, it continues speaking against their ratification.

- Still, the Azerbaijani politicians and expert often make military-like statements that Azerbaijan is going to win in case it starts a war.

- Of course, such statements are made since they are an efficient tool in the politics. For instance, they can be quite effective when used against the opposition in the country. Besides, I believe it is politologically incorrect to see a direct connection between the frequency of the statements and the possibility of a war. The politicians may talk a lot about it before the military actions, or they may say nothing. By the way, before the five-day war in Georgia, the possibility of a war was not mentioned as often as it is mentioned today.

 

Svetlana Bolotnikova

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