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Will the Armenian-Turkish protocols trigger a war?

07.04.2010  |  10:25

5744.jpegThe Armenian politicians have made a warning that the ratification of the agreements with Turkey threatens with the Azerbaijani aggression against Nagorny Karabakh. In the context of Baku's military-like statements and the amount of arms possessed by the Azerbaijani army, such forecasts are quite well-grounded. However, the experts questioned by GeorgiaTimes do not see any reasons for launching military actions in the near future.

The Dashnaktsutjun party has warned the society against the possible aggression on the part of Azerbaijan in case the Armenian-Turkish protocols are ratified without considering the Azerbaijani interests.


This has been stated on April, 2 by head of the party's political issues office (of the Dashnaktsutjun Armenian Revolutionary Federation, or ARFD) Kiro Manoyan. As he assumes, it was not by chance that Washington invited President of Armenia Serge Sargsyan and Prime Minister of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the nuclear safety summit.

According to the politician's apprehensions, secret negotiations are going to be held in the USA, which may result in Ankara's agreement to ratify the Armenian-Turkish protocols in exchange for the United States of America's guaranty of non-recognition of the genocide over the Armenians in the Turkish Empire. This would be especially relevant in advance of April, 24, which is the Great Massacre (Mets Egern) anniversary that is going to be the subject of Obama's regular speech.

Should the protocols be ratified by the Turkish parliament, the Azerbaijani, who are of the same kin with the Turks, will probably be unable to put up with the treachery and initiate a war, as Manoyan supposes. Now Baku is demanding that the relationship between Turkey and Armenia should be settled simultaneously with the de-occupation of Nagorny Karabakh.

By the way, the Azerbaijani consider their mission of disrupting the growing Armenian-Turkish friendship as almost completed. Thus, as independent political analyst, Advisor on Foreign Policy Issues to the first three presidents of Azerbaijan Vapha Guladze has stated to IA REGNUM, the meeting of Sarkisyan and Erdogan is not going to bear any fruit. He believes the president of Armenia will say he makes no decisions on his own, while the Turkish prime minister will ask Obama to influence Moscow, which takes decisions for him. "Summing up, it is easy to see that no decision will be taken in the USA... As to April, 24, I believe that the Armenians' expectations are in vain: Obama is not going to use the word "genocide"; in English, at least. He will say that the old-aged tragic events should not prevent the two peoples from settling normal relationship", - the Azerbaijani expert forecasts.

Meanwhile, the apprehensions of the Armenian military foreteller were supported by Manoyan's party associate, Head of Defense, National Security and Internal Affairs Commission of the Parliament of Armenia Grayr Karapetyan. He threatened Baku with the loss of the new regions in case the war starts.

Head of Nagorny Karabakh Bako Saakayan has also made a contribution to the general panic by having promised more problems than there were after the 1991-94 war. "Azerbaijan's military-like policy is vain and irrelevant. I strongly believe that the current problems of today's world can be settled purely by civil methods, at the negotiating table, or by way of a straight-forward dialogue", - he added in his interview given to Armenian newspaper The Voice of Armenia.

Although almost all the politicians said that the war is hardly possible, rumors and expert appraisals have already started spreading throughout the Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian media. The more so, as it turned out that Armenia has suddenly started active military preparation. Besides, on hearsay, men younger than 45 are not let out of the airport, which means the soon mobilization of the population.

GeorgiaTimes tried to see into the situation: are things really that bad?

Head of Analytical Department of the Russian Military and Political Analysis Institute Alexander Khramchikhin believes that there is going to be no war; however, no possibility should be left out.

- Such things are always possible, although I believe both the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols and a war in Azerbaijan to be scarcely probable.

- Still, according to the statistics of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, all the countries in the South Caucasus have increased their defense and arms procurement expenses. In the opinion of the Swedish experts, Azerbaijan is also preparing for the potential revival of Nagorny Karabakh conflict.

- The military equipment expenses have grown indeed; still, it is hardly possible that the experts counted the amount of weapon in Nagorny Karabakh and compared it to Azerbaijan's.

- Do you mean Azerbaijan is inferior in this aspect and will not be able to win?

- It is a well-known fact that Karabakh is well-armed, the weapon being constantly provided by Armenia.

- However, there is also the statement made by the Azerbaijani authorities that they are ready for the military actions.


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