Georgia's fear takes molehills for mountains26.09.2011 | 15:39
If you want peace - be ready for a war. This phrase of ancient Roman historian Cornelius Nepos is relevant to the present day. Especially when you have a rebellious neighbor. State Duma Deputy Semen Bagdasarov expressed his views on what should be done in order to protect Abkhazia and South Ossetia from the inevitable Georgian aggression. Director of the Institute of Political Studies Sergei Markov in an interview to GeorgiaTimes gave an assess how reasonable are concerns of the deputy.
Georgian media is very excited. They are quoting a statement by the Russian State Duma Deputy from the faction "Fair Russia" Semen Bagdasarov, who said that a new war with Georgia can occur. Look, - the journalists are saying interrupting each other - Russia has openly admitted that she wants and will fight!
Calm down. Russia does not plan a war. Bagdasarov's anxiety is related to a possible Georgian aggression, which would be reflected. That was what he said in his speech and what was garbled by the engaged mass media. The threat of attack, as in 2008, comes from Georgia, and not from Russia.
"Let's ask a question: "Will a war with Georgia take place? "I tell you: the war with Georgia will take place till 2014, there's no doubt. I can cite the facts that bear this out. The Georgian army today is not just recovered in the numerical composition, but became greater for 8000. Today it is 39-something thousand people. All the equippment is fully restored"- said Bagdasarov and continued reflections that now the Georgian armed forces can get highly skilled professionals from Turkey. And this can make the Georgian leadership to start new thoughtless aggression against the independent republics.
Bagdasarov urged to be ready for this attack, in order it has not turned as in 2008 when the Russian army was hastening to the rescue, while defenseless people were dying under the fire. "No Russian Petrov or Ivanov have to fight, they should create a battle-worthy structure, which would inflict a defeat on the Georgian army" - quite rightly said Bagdasarov. Of course, Russia is engaged in this - it helps independent states - Abkhazia and South Ossetia - to train a skilled military.
Of course, for official Tbilisi it is like a sharp knife in their heart, that's why they got so hysterical, saying that Russia "confessed" to the villainous intentions. The level of panic that has been raised in the Georgian media can not be measured. Naturally, they made conclusions that Moscow is just powerless threatening, that such statements are evidence of internal agony and "fear" of the Georgian army. In fact, all of these covers the panic: what if Russia really lift up the troops.
Calm down and relax again. Russians do not want war. If Georgia would not start a war - no one will come to their territory. This The director of the Institute of Political Studies Sergei Markov assures readers of GeorgiaTimes in this.
"Semen Bagdasarov is a regular speaker of "Fair Russia" on foreign policy issues, and in his speech, he expressed Russia's concerns. - Markov said. - In particular, the growth of the Georgian armed forces, because we know that their Chief is crazy. He's a maniac who had once slyly sent his army on the civilians".
The expert also noted that he doesn't share too "alarmist" ardour of MP, confident in the near beginning of the war. Now, says the source of GeorgiaTimes, it is clear that Washington, on which Georgian politics largely depends, will not allow Saakashvili to start the war again as it happened in 2008. Still, Sergei Markov doesn't exclude that the situation could change.
"We believe that Georgia is now unlikely to unleash a war. But it is possible in the future, because at first the Americans barred Saakashvili to use troops, trained in the U.S., against the Ossetians and Abkhazians. And then at some point when it became profitable within the framework of the pre-election campaign, they have allowed this" - Markov said, noting that this permit may be issued again. "It's good that now the U.S. president is Barack Obama. But what if a Republican wins the next elections and, for example, Sarah Palin will become the President? She's very unpredictable woman, they are called a "Brain Salad". That is, there may be different versions of events. But not now".
Sergei Markov also stressed that Russia was not going and is not going to attack Georgia. "Undoubtedly, Russia has no political objectives in the region, which could be achieved through aggression, - the expert said. - We just can stand up for Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Russian citizens in case of a threat".
All the statements on the subject of the Russian aggression are Saakashvili's attempts to get a PR, to get support and money to save his regime and to change the office of the President to the office of Prime. And to change the Constitution from presidential to parliamentary. "It is important for him that the West do not prevent him to realize this plan" - said Markov.