Washington: a “black spot” in store for Saakashvili?19.10.2010 | 16:29
Valery Gelbakhiani, former deputy of Georgian parliament, foretells a nasty future for the current leader of Sakartvelo. According to him the dissatisfaction over Mikheil Saakashvili's inadequate behavior that has been brewing in Washington for a long time will lead the president of Georgia to a political crash. "I know about the meeting between Saakashvili and Obama scheduled for December and the only ultimatum to be discussed: or you hold early elections, or we wash our hands of it", - Gelbakhiani stated. He adds that Saakashvili's position at the meeting with US president will be weakened by massive opposition rallies planned at the end of November.
The statement by Saakashvili's opponent looks well-timed in view of early parliamentary elections rumored to be initiated by Georgian president. By the way, Gelbakhiani, now on the international wanted list as accused for involvement in coup d'etat conspiracy by Georgian authorities, is of the same opinion.
By all appearances Mikheil Nikolozovich can't wait to change the presidential seat for PMship. A lot of things can happen before his presidential powers expire in 2013! The doomsday predicted by Maya Indians, for instance. It's hard to say what the Georgian leader fears most - the apocalypse or the Hague tribunal. And the position of head of government seems a quiet harbor to hide away from any turmoil. Besides, there can't be any doubts that current Georgian leader will be "crowned to rule" in compliance with mutilated Constitution.
Still, president of Georgia can only dream of peace and quiet. Indeed, Saakashvili's dependence on Washington puts him in an unstable position. On one hand Tbilisi yields lots of benefits with US administration, like a goldfish, heaping Georgian authorities with wealth, protecting them in the international arena and giving dividends both at home and abroad. But the price Georgia has to pay for all these gifts is a sticky image of US Majesty's loyal vassal.
On the other hand, as well-known Georgian politologist Ramaz Sakvarelidze claims, the Georgian president has attempted to change the role of complacent US supporter more than once. "Saakashvili is quite an independent figure. He will maintain close contacts with America until the States start bothering him. By the way we have already seen what he is up to when problems emerge. When the USA moved away from Saakashvili, he immediately started declaring intense ties with Iran", - Sakvarelidze said in an interview with GeorgiaTimes correspondent.
"There is no point in playing one-sided game with Saakashvili - he will try to counteract. The USA won't be naïve to think that Saakashvili will abandon prospects of his political career", - the expert added.
He also agrees that early election will take place in the country: "Yes, there are such rumors going on in Georgia. By the way, I agree that Saakashvili will organize them. This opinion is the result of haste connected with the work on new Constitution. Nobody will be surprised at such developments. With the new Constitution the problem of the head of the state will be solved at parliamentary election. The winning party will present PM, and presidential election will lose a political component".
The last thing to remark is that if Valery Gelbakhiani's guesses that Saakashvili will inevitably be given a "black spot" from Washington are right, the Georgian president must face a tricky dilemma. Americans have been annoyed at the "Rose Revolution" chief for quite a long time already, so representatives of US higher echelons of power won't put up with this smear on their not untarnished reputation.
However, quitting big politics, if this is decided overseas, means the end of well-being as well as immunity to Saakashvili. Still, "day of disobedience" to the States might lead to the same if not a worse outcome for the Georgian president. He will have to think hard how to avoid the end of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.