USA testing Caucasus for revolutions03.05.2011 | 19:22
U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Tina Kaidanow's visit to the South Caucasus has rather excited local elites. Her trip resembled an "on-the-ground reconnaissance". A visit of such high-ranking American official was aimed not only at strengthening Washington's relationship with the Caucasian republics' authorities but also at establishing closer relationship with those who might replace them. Russian expert Alexey Vlasov told GeorgiaTimes of the possible consequences of this tour.
USA have long been trying to position themselves as a dominating force in the South Caucasus. That is why Tina Kaidanow's latest trip to Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia resembles the visitation of a governor sent by the metropolis to check the "aborigines'" behavior in the territory of the "colonies". Assistant Secretary of State, who is known for her fierceness, made it clear to Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi that Washington is not going to loosen its attention to the region despite the Americans' preoccupation with the attempts to establish control over the irrepressible whirlpool of riots and revolutions that has swept over the Near East and Africa.
It appears that Kaidanow hinted to the three countries' leaders that they may soon follow Hosni Mubarak and his fellows in misery, especially in the context of the opposition's active efforts in the regional countries, Georgian being in the first place. Moreover, it is evident that the USA do not mind settling contacts with the government's opponents in all the three countries. It is notable that Assistant Secretary of State paid much attention to the meetings with the opposition and various nongovernmental organizations.
The fact that Kaidanow's voyage was a kind of reconnaissance for the Americans is admitted by Deputy Director of the Information and Political Center for Public and Political Processes in the Post-Soviet Space at Moscow State University Alexey Vlasov. In his opinion, the USA want to study the current situation in the region, trying to enhance their influence in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. "So far, we are collecting information, though it has not yet been analyzed and realized in certain projects", - he stated in an interview to GeorgiaTimes.
According to the expert, Ilham Aliyev's regime is most resistant to possible revolutions, though Alexey Vlasov is sure that there is a probability of initiating various protest actions. "Azerbaijan is a country attracting Washington's greatest attention, especially considering the republic's energy resources. There is also an opportunity to process the social protest activation technologies that may be used in Russia in 2012", - he underlined.
Vlasov also added that, incredible as it may seem, the possible revolution in Azerbaijan is equally beneficial for the two basic opponents, Iran and the USA. "It is notable that Americans are actively supporting local oppositional bloggers, as well as various young activists who have been educated in Europe", - the experts underlined.
Serge Sargsyan and Mikhail Saakashvili's regimes are evidently most sensitive to the realization of an "Egypt scenario". "So far, there are no domestic preconditions for a social outburst similar to the one we saw in Egypt, Tunisia, and Syria, while various external powers may be interested in such a scenario. As for Georgia, Kaidanow's visit should be viewed in the context of the opposition's upcoming actions. For instance, Nino Burjanadze's position is taken by the American political establishment with much attention and interest and she herself is considered to be a much more acceptable person for the West than the current president", - Vlasov underlined, having added that the trip of the USA Assistant Secretary of State will assist The States in forming their objectives in the Caucasus.
However, with all Washington's attention to the region, American politicians find no more space in their heart for their previous favourite, Mikhail Saakashvili. Georgian president has actually played out and will be easily thrown out to the garbage heap of history. He will hardly avoid the future of a useless puppet. However hard the leader of the Rose Revolution tried to prove his value to the West, the seat of the head of the republic is already being prepared for the next pretender.