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Wikileaks unveils Caucasian passions22.07.2011 | 20:55
Notorious Wikileaks site comes up with new details of Georgia's attempts to widen its influence in Caucasus and weaken Russia's significance in this region. According to the freshly published information, not long ago president Mikheil Saakashvili was going to take advantage of the rapprochement process between Turkey and Armenia. GeorgiaTimes correspondent discussed reasons why the head of the Georgian state will not make his dreams come true with Heydar Jemal, chair of the Islamic committee of Russia.
It will be remembered that a new portion of diplomat cables published by Wikileaks features Saakashvili's meeting with Tina Caydanov, US deputy assistant secretary of state. As it turns out, during the talk the president of Georgia mentioned improvement of relationships between Yerevan and Ankara hinting that in case of a success of the talks Armenia should be taken out of the zone of Russian influence in South Caucasus.
Moscow's leading positions in the region have been Mikheil Saakashvili's headache for a long time already. After all, he was allowed to become president in order to weaken them. But his actions in this direction only arouse bewilderment. Attempts to set up a confederation with Azerbaijan, introduction of visa-free regime for residents of North Caucasian republic, recognition of genocide of Circassians, declarations on Olympic boycott... It is a long list of initiatives - all doomed to failure any way. Because everyone knows what Georgian leaders really want.
Considering that Russian-Armenian ties are getting stronger year after year, Saakashvili's attempts are vain. Suffice to remember last year's agreement between Moscow and Yerevan on prolonged deployment of Guymri military base up to 2044. These troops as well as units stationed in South Ossetia and Abkhazia serve as the guarantor of stability and peace in the region not allowing aggressive Georgian leaders to organize new provocations.
As Heydar Jemal, a public figure and a politician, thinks, it is unlikely that Georgia will succeed in "tearing" Armenia off Russia. "Not only Saakashvili wants that. There is a tendency in the Armenian ruling class to weaken Moscow's influence. The States too, put a serious pressure on president Sargsyan. Yet, he does not make abrupt moves for fear to lose Russia's military support. The only factor that keeps the country from being destroyed by Azerbaijan are Russian units deployed in the territory of the republic. If agreements are made invalid, the Armenian state and Nagorny Karabakh stop existence in three days' time", - he said in an interview with GeorgiaTimes correspondent.
"I don't know how real Saakashvili's dreams of influence on Armenia are. After all this is a non-free state strangled with all sorts of obligations. Armenia depends on Russia and is closely watched by the West. The Georgian president's idea is hardly feasible until serious changes in the Eurasian political climate take place", - the expert added.
According to Jemal, Armenian leader Serge Sargsyan could make concessions to Turkey and Azerbaijan if pressed by Russian president Medvedev, not US or Georgia. "But he has a very strong opposition that will overthrow current leadership that will make disadvantageous commitments. This, by the way, is another restraint for Saakashvili, since he has no possibility to guarantee protection to Sargsyan", - the head of the Islamic Union of Russia stated.
The expert also thinks that Georgia's allies in Washington won't want it as a guarantor of existence of the Armenian state since US politicians seek instability in Caucasus and new armed conflicts in the region. "Saakashvili's efforts don't have enough political weight. Besides, Tbilisi and Yerevan have many different problems: there is a risk that Armenia might infringe Georgia's territorial integrity in Javakhetia", - our interlocutor assures.