Will Iran declare the World War III?19.12.2011 | 20:01
Perhaps the world now stands on the threshold of a new big war - the Iranian. Sources, close to the intelligence agencies of different countries, even referred to a specific time frame of its begining. South Caucasus directly borders with Iran. Russia's borders also lie very close. GeorgiaTimes and doctoral student of political science department at Tbilisi State University Solomon Lebanoidze tried to predict what might be the consequences of armed conflict for the individual countries in the region.
The war may start with a strike of "nuclear" targets in Iran by Israel. The United States would support this attack. If this happens, the new large-scale war would be inevitable. Iran is not Libya or even Iraq. In addition, anti-Iranian forces have not managed to create "zone of hate" around the country, which means that many countries support Tehran directly or indirectly. In particular - China. President Hu Jintao urgently warned that if the United States or another country attacks Iran, China would take quick measures and enter the war. As for Moscow, according to sources close to the Russian Defense Ministry, as "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" reported, the forces in the region have been already mobilized for a possible war. GeorgiaTimes tries to predict with the help of the experts what may happen with the South Caucasus region in the event of another global war.
On Saturday, some of the central districts of Yerevan speak Persian. On weekends, the residents of neighboring Iran, missing temporal life, come here. The women can behave more freely here, and the men can openly drink brandy. The days when Iran was separated from the Caucasus by the Iron Curtain of the Soviet Union are gone. Now for the people of Armenia and Azerbaijan the neighbor country is not exotic, and the countries' ties are developing at different levels.
Armenia and Azerbaijan only border with Iran and seem not to really concern about the troubles of neighboring state. But only at first glance. War with Iran wouldn't be local, it's obvious. And most importantly, it can lead to a "decompression" of the region.
Georgian political analyst Solomon Lebanoidze looks into the near future with pessimism. In an interview to GeorgiaTimes he said the war in Iran is really possible. "And it may be escalated into World War III. None of the neighbors will stand aside. Since there are many nuances that won't allow any of the Caucasian countries to stay safe haven", the analyst said.
Lebanoidze may be right. Russia will obviously oppose the war with Iran. It can't stay completely aside, but after talks with China's leader, it became clear that one cannot rule out a military alliance, which may well turn into an anti-Western coalition fighting against Israel and the United States, if they intervene in the war.
Very close to Yerevan, where the Iranians relax on weekends, there is Russia's 102nd military base. It will be under attack, with a high probability of its complete loss for Russia. Even last year, Georgia has closed the possibility of Russian military cargo transit through the country. "If the war breaks out and the Russian base in Armenia gets in isolation, we cannot exclude the possibility that Russia will take measures to secure a corridor through Georgia", the analyst said.
In general, according to our expert, the Georgian authorities are now in a very difficult situation. "Georgia and Iran have very pragmatic and friendly relations. I think that Tbilisi will try to play a passive role in this process", the expert believes.
According to "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", the Russian side has already attended to the safety of its base in Armenia. The military families are already taken away from there and the personnel is already transferred to another region of the country, near the border with Turkey.
Yesterday the head of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev had a one-day visit to Abkhazia. He visited the grave of President Sergey Bagapsh where he sat in silence long enough, then he was taken to New Athos monastery and later - to the Russian military bases. It is quite clear that Patrushev arrived in Abkhazia not to have a walk. Moscow will mobilize all its military resources in the region in case of war.
Baku is capable of surprises. Isolation of the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia and its limited combat capability may encourage Azerbaijanis for a new war over Nagorno-Karabakh. "There is a serious risk that Azerbaijan will take advantage of Russia's weakening in Armenia and start a war for the liberation of Karabakh", Solomon Lebanoidze said. "The war development will depend on the participation of larger players - such as the USA, Turkey. In this case I do not think the U.S. will remain passive", the analyst added.