"Al-Qaeda" will blow up the North Caucasus?23.12.2011 | 21:15
The U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said that America is ready to take military action against Iran. Meanwhile, Barack Obama speaks about the relationship with the Islamic Republic rather reservedly. But it is obvious that the American president and Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are waiting for something. Russia's North Caucasus and Transcaucasia may be involved in the alleged war. Orientalist and political scientist Georgy Mirsky told about an approximate scenario of events in an interview to GTimes.
The head of the U.S. military department Leon Panetta in an interview with CBS made it clear that his country is ready to inflict a military strike on Iran. Speaking about Iran's nuclear program, Panetta said: "Iran is ready to build an atomic bomb. The U.S. will stop him in spite of everything". The minister did not exclude that Ahmadinejad had concealed from the observers the object with concentrated fuel. Basically Panetta uses the IAEA resolution, published in November this year. According to this document, Tehran has been developing its own nuclear weapons until 2003.
Official Tehran stated that Iranian nuclear program was purely peaceful. Moreover, Ahmadinejad has allowed еру IAEA experts to visit Iran in January 2012. There issues were discussed at the highest level. The international organizations were made aware. Despite this, the EU and the U.S. decided to impose economic sanctions against Iran.
Panetta's words indicate that further sanctions can be not only economic. Dennis Ross, a former adviser to Obama on Middle East, also spoke on this issue. In an interview to Israeli Channel "Channel 10 News" Ross said: "The President of the United States will take all necessary steps, not excluding military strike against the Islamic Republic of Iran". He added that Leon Panetta's words "once again show the seriousness of the attitude of the U.S. president to this issue". The edition reminds: Barack Obama himself has been quite restrained and did no harsh statements about Iran.
All the world's Medias are stiffened in anticipation. The American attack on Iran would affect not only the Middle East; it would resound throughout the world. North Caucasus and the Transcaucasian republics may get under the threat. What can you expect from Washington and Tehran?
Political analyst Georgy Mirsky, chief researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Academy of Sciences, gave an exclusive interview to GeorgiaTimes.
- There is no certainty that the U.S. will strike on Iran, especially in the election year. We can talk about something else: whether the United States will manage to keep Israel from attacking Iran. Of course, everything will depend on Iran itself. The ball is on the Iranian side. The States are carrying out typical "war of nerves" and dissuading Israel from the actual military operations, which will necessarily involve Americans. In the case of a real attack on Iran the Islamic world would have taken it as an American initiative. America would answer for this in a very terrible way. On the other hand, America cannot pretend that nothing is happening. A recently published report of the IAEA showed that Iran, despite the UN Security Council resolutions and sanctions, goes its own way. If Obama will turn his back to the issue of Iran, he'll be accused of helplessness, incompetence and cowardice.
Russia made various suggestions to Iran about cooperation. Their meaning is: the concentration uranium on our territory, in this case Iran could receive necessary rods for their station in Tehran from France. Iran has refused, because concentration uranium in Russia means a waiver of the level of enrichment over 20%, from which they cannot make a uranium bomb. Now nuclear power plant in Tehran is increasing the number of centrifuges: apparently, the Iranians want to reach a level of more than 90%. This is the uranium needed for the bombs. But even if they manage, it does not mean that Iran wants to make an atomic bomb and drop it on Israel. This is called "five-minute state of readiness". The whole world would know about this readiness, it would lend weight to Iran in the Middle East and would enable it to be called a great power.
- What will the hypothetical military invasion of Israel in the U.S. into Iran look like? How will Iran answer?