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Iran and U.S. on the verge of war18.01.2012 | 12:34
The complex situation around Iran is recently being discussed by political scientists and experts more actively. Americans' attempts to solve the Iranian problem are of particular concern to the Russian experts.
At the press conference on a possible war in the Middle East, held in Moscow, the degree of discussion, at times, exceeded the limit. Opinions of some political scientists diverged at the root, causing flashes of micro-conflicts.
The Director General of Center for the Study of Modern Iran Rajab Safarov spoke first. In his view, the recent developments around Iran suggest that it is part of a coherent policy of some countries that have started a venture called "decision of the Iranian issue". "Now I understand why the IAEA report, which was published in December, appeared and why this report included such conclusions. Western world, led by the United States, needed a pretext. The goal is already known - to change the political regime in Iran, and any occasion fits to solve this issue. Now the parties are on the brink of a foul. Any small provocation can lead unpredictable consequences", Safarov warned.
The expert pointed out - if the Americans establish control over Iran, then just two or three weeks later all the countries of Central Asia would be redirected toward Washington, and the United States Navy will appear in the Caspian Sea. "Georgia will soon join NATO; Azerbaijan under the seductive and alluring offers of the West could join the Alliance. Cut off from Russia, Armenia would just give up Nagorno-Karabakh and also enter into this military bloc in order to survive. CIS will cease to exist as a community of independent states", Safarov explained. "Such structure as the CSTO won't be so important. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization will undergo the most radical change".
According to Director of Center for the Study of Modern Iran, energy resources of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia will be reallocated to other world markets, bypassing Russia. The demand for Russian energy resources and the problems associated with their transport won't allow Russia to earn enough money that would enable it to maintain a serious military budget and the broad social programs. But the most important thing is that Russia will lose its political partners and will face serious challenges. "The U.S. is resolving another problem - the impact on China. Having established control over Iran, the U.S. would actually solve the problems of the energy market pricing. Persian Gulf monarchies even now request from Washington permission for every barrel of oil. After all, the Americans are guaranteeing security of their regime. And in exchange for keeping the power they agree to coordinate their policies and economy with the West", the expert said.
Safarov added that Iran's political system is very attractive to many peoples of the Islamic world. The level of freedom and democracy in this country is much higher than in other states in the region. A cynical use of double standards towards Iran is obvious. The U.S. and the West do not care for the state and development of the republic's nuclear program, which is already the most transparent. "They do not care of the level of freedom, human rights and other social opportunities of citizens", he said. "They care only of the political system that does not allow them access to energy. The entire geopolitical picture of the world will change. Therefore, they need to change this regime. This is an attempt of Public penalty. Billions of dollars were invested in future conflict, many infrastructure problems are solved and the investors are waiting for replenishment of their treasury".
But all of this, said Safarov, is a direct threat to Russian interests. In the worst-case scenarios, dozens of military bases that will work on training officers for the tasks in the Russian Federation will be deployed in Iran. "And then they would say Russia that it has a large territory and the rights of a permanent member of the Security Council. This would be the beginning of the collapse of the Russian Federation", he said. "Moscow should take a proactive stance to prevent a further escalation of tensions, to come up with suggestions and help Iran in the military and technical terms. I am sure they would get a rationale for the international community".
Further, the senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies Vladimir Sazhin spoke. In his statement, he stressed that the calls for support of Iran remind him Soviet propaganda. "Yeah, I want to rush to the barricades to defend the unfortunate Iran. The reason is the nuclear issue of the Islamic republic. A member of the IAEA has been carrying it out secretly. Iran is carrying out confrontational politics. Their brinkmanship is in everything: Obama - for the election program, and Russia - for reasons of energy security. And Iran too, since this year there will be held parliamentary elections and the political situation there is very complex. Americans do not want war, they're provoking. They do not want to change the regime in Iran", he said, surprising many of his colleagues.