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Expert: Karabakh conflict is irresolvable16.07.2012 | 19:28
Recently, the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, has traveled to Baku, Stepanakert and Yerevan. During the visit, Matthew Bryza stated the peace agreement was almost ready, but the have remained some nuances. This statement has caused a wave of debate in Armenia. Political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan told GTimes that at this stage the conflict is irresolvable.
Statement about a peace treaty raises many questions, since both the status of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and frequent acts of sabotage in the frontal zone, shows rather the opposite trend. It is clear that, given the diametrically opposed attitudes in the societies of Armenia (including Karabakh) and Azerbaijan, it's early to talk about conflict resolution and participation of the NKR in the negotiation.
Thus, both co-chairs' visit to the region and their statements are generally the next action aimed at preserving the status quo. In other words, everything is done to prevent current situation from turning into a large-scale fighting since the conflict is quite young, and yet insoluble. "Visits of the OSCE Minsk Group to the region during past few years had one function - to maintain the status quo and the continuation of the negotiation process. No one speaks about settlement or any progress for a long time, since the OSCE Minsk Group cannot resolve the conflict instead of Armenia, Karabakh and Azerbaijan", director of Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan said in an interview with GTimes correspondent.
"Many important and interesting process surround the Karabakh conflict - in Stepanakert, an airport to be built and opened later this year, which would fundamentally change the communication and psychological closeness between Yerevan and Stepanakert. A new road from the south-eastern part of Sevan to Karvachar (former Kelbajar), which is 100 km shorter than the currently existing roads, is under construction. This is the second major highway connecting Armenia with Karabakh", Iskandaryan said.
After the construction of a new road the communication map and economic configuration of region will change significantly. Exploiting of this route by mining companies, operating in the north of Karabakh, must simplify exporting products, loading it into the trains delivering to Alaverdi (an industrial city in Armenia), processing and exporting to European markets, the analyst believes. After that it is ridiculous to say that Karvachar area is the subject of bargaining in the negotiation process and may be given to Azerbaijan, he said. "A bus trip to the Karvachar was launched; the Internet has improved; there has appeared the ATMs system; a large irrigation system is being constructed in the south of Karabakh. All this shows only one thing - settlement of new territories is taking place there", the expert says.
Azerbaijani position is generally reduced to the following: "We'll get rich, our army will be strong, and we'll return-Karabakh". "In reality, they are accommodating refugees, who gradually adapt to the towns and villages of Azerbaijan, as well as others post-Soviet countries. It was stated that Azerbaijan intended to build a wall on the border with Karabakh to save civilians from the shots. It doesn't matter, whether they build it or not - the important thing is that you don't build walls to fence yourself from the territory, you're going to return. In addition, a significant portion of Azerbaijan purchase of arms is intended for the navy in the Caspian Sea. In Karabakh you can't use it against Armenian forces", he concluded.
You can see that in reality both the negotiation process and the Karabakh conflict, undergo the processes, connected to each other, but different in the essence. They alter the reality of the negotiations in some way, as opposed to endless visits of the co-chairs.