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Expert: Nothing can save Bashar Assad13.08.2012 | 15:44
Currently, the major cities of Syria are enveloped in full-scale fighting. This is not a rebellion. It's not even a revolution. It's a real bloody civil war. And the opposition wins in this war, the analyst Elshad Mirbashirogly believes. In his view, Bashar Assad's regime has exhausted itself, and despite the temporary success of the Syrian army, the collapse of the current government is inevitable.
Mirbashirogly says this is caused by several factors. First, there are more disgruntled by the regime in the country than the satisfied. This figure is growing every day, with the increase of victims. Second, the Western powers are seeking for the defeat of Assad and his resign from the power.
Even external support, for example from Russia, China and Iran, won't save the current government, says the analyst. All of these countries are seeking own goals and protecting interests in the region. China, as a new global superpower, is interested in exhausting of the United States resources. The weaker the U.S., the stronger China - this is an axiom. Therefore, the involvement of the United States into a new long-term and costly conflict is into China's hand. Basing on this, we clearly see the reasons of Beijing's support of the initiatives from Moscow and Tehran on the settlement of the conflict in Syria.
In this situation, the position of the South Caucasian countries with respect to this conflict is no less interested, especially since this conflict may escalate the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. As you know, rather large Armenian Diaspora lives in Syria, and recently some of its representatives have fled in Armenia in connection with the emerging security challenges. Unfortunately, the Armenian leadership offers to "put these people out of the frying pan into the fire", believes the political analyst Gabil Huseynli. In Armenia they keep discussing rumors about the settlement of Syrian Armenians in the mountainous part of Karabakh. This is violation of all agreements concerning the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. It is no accident that Azerbaijani side has appealed to international bodies with a request to monitor this issue.
Regarding the situation in Syria, Baku has withdrawn diplomats from Damascus. According to the official version, it was made to ensure the personnel safety. Political scientist Elshad Mirbashirogly believes this is correct step. "We cannot endanger our citizens. In this case, none of the parties can take responsibility for ensuring the complete safety of our diplomats". According to the analyst, despite the fact that Azerbaijan has diplomatic relations with Syria, Baku has to adhere to the opinion of the world community making the final decision on the situation in this Arab country. But this view is clear: Bashar Assad must leave.
The issue of Assad's removal from power was discussed by the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during a visit to Turkey. According to Mirbashirogly, in talks with Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu she has agreed to establish a working group on the crisis in Syria. It is designed to analyze possible scenarios in the country, including the option when the government troops use chemical weapons against the rebels. During the talks, Clinton also stated at the moment the main U.S. and Turkey goal must be approaching the end of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. This fact in itself shows once again the end of Assad's reign is near. Over the past couple of decades there has not been even a case that such statements by the U.S. officials were soft-pedaled, summed up his view Elshad Mirbashirogly.