War with Iran: Who'll be the "scapegoat"?14.08.2012 | 18:02
What is common between civil war in Syria, the regime of Saakashvili in Georgia and boom of Salafism in Tatarstan? The preparation of the world for military actions against Iran. The overthrow of Assad, "democratization" of Georgia and the instability in Russia - all of this would give opponents a good operating room for maneuver and minimize possible losses. The main direction of attack on Iran is Caucasus, and the key to it is Georgia. Such is the opinion of the director of the Institute of the Black Sea-Caspian region Vladimir Zakharov.
- Why do you believe that the U.S. will start war with Iran?
- The fact that war of the Western powers against Iran will happen in the near future is doubtless. The U.S. and EU with Turkey and the Arab monarchies are raping Syria for the second year. The fall of Bashar Assad's regime provides "friends of Syria" with the dismantling of the strategic axis of the Tehran-Damascus - that is the Hezbollah. If Damascus falls, then the road to Tehran is open. Resolution of the issue of the Hezbollah - this is a matter of time.
And if the "Arab Spring" turns into "Persian Spring", then the war comes to the Caucasus and Central Asia. Uzbekistan has already managed to secure itself, leaving the CSTO in late June this year. Uzbek elites have decided to turn their country into Central Asian analog of Pakistan, and thus to save their own skin. These elites have never thought of the poor Uzbek people.
- What does the war mean for the Caucasus?
- The U.S. will make Georgia a scapegoat in the war with Iran. Under Saakashvili Georgia was the American military base. Iran will respond to the U.S. air strikes with the counterattacks on Caucasus airfields. Iranians do not care where from they are attacked. They will fight for their country until the last Iranian. It would be hard for Georgia in this case. There will be serious social unrest, riots, the flowering of separatist mood. The Adzharians will start talk about their independence first. Saakashvili has done too much in Adjara to be hated.
- Only Georgia can become a "scapegoat" in the coming war with Iran?
- I believe that all post-Soviet elites should think about future in the case of global international disasters. This is especially true for the elite of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. These republics, in the case of international action against Iran, would be "scapegoats".
None of the South Caucasus republic can be considered separately. They are all connected to the developments in the Caucasus and the Middle East, and suffer the same disease. In spite of tensions, in case of war against Iran, both Armenia and Azerbaijan get into hard situation. Alas, neither Yerevan nor Baku think, for example, about what would happen after the fall of Damascus, or, God forbid, Tehran. Experts think about it, but the leadership - no. The leaders of the South Caucasian states make mistake counting for the American condescension or respect for its past merits. They don't care about the merits of President Ilham Aliyev and Saakashvili! Caucasus for them is the territory, and the rulers are worthless because they are nobody.
- What is the role of U.S. Secretary of State in the strategy of war against Iran?
- Hillary Clinton is travelling throughout the world not accidently. She knows of the existence of WikiLeaks, she is versed in the kitchen of the counter-intelligence services and prefers to obtain the information by herself, rather than trusting it to other people. If needed, Hillary will pretend to be complete fool (many believe in this). Apparently, the world's forgotten that in fact, Bill Clinton became the U.S president only thanks to her. Now Clinton's agency puts the world before the fact, that the Iranian regime of the ayatollahs must be overthrown for the sake of peace on the Earth. Hillary can act hard and aggressively if needed, or softly and smoothly. All major changes in world politics is a consequence of the global goal of the dismantling of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
- Why, then, the U.S. does not give Israel consent to use force?
- America needs to play safe before the presidential election. The war will be prolonged, America may undergo a serious failure. The war affects the whole world, including, of course, Russia. All they see unhealthy ferment in the Muslim regions of our country. I am absolutely sure that the killers of Waliullah Yakupov were guided by a foreign emissary.