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Thursday, 16 July 2009

Analitics
  • Labour Ultimatum for Georgia 2009-07-16 14:13
  • Biden will be Invited to Sit in a Cage Camera 2009-07-15 18:01
  • The Peacemaker’s Day in South Ossetia 2009-07-15 10:09
  • Rubber bullets in law 2009-07-13 23:18 It was not for nothing that poets and writers of various epochs admired Georgia in their literary works. However, it will obviously be long before the people have a chance to enjoy the noise of the Kura River, the waters of sulfur baths and the sun rays… The problem lies in politics. The parliament is voting for legalization of rubber bullets used by the police, as well as for stiffening the rules for holding the meetings, while the president refers to the oppositional meetings as to nothing but “a storm in a teacup”. Now, that is the paradox.
  • Realists and Dreamers of the Opposition 2009-07-13 23:16 The Georgian opposition is promising to organize a hot autumn for the authorities. Meanwhile another realignment of forces is starting in its rows. Moreover, the leader of the «Alliance for Georgia» Irakly Alasania who has fallen away from the radicals and represents moderate opposition, declares that the attitude of the authorities has changed, and the country authorities are ready to carry on a real dialog with the opposition.
  • Budget non-cutting 2009-07-10 13:59 The idea that the crisis has blown over and that the economic recovery has been started is quite popular today, at the suggestion of the Georgian government. Meanwhile, the experts are warning again unjustifiable hopes. However, the economical situation in Georgia is as confusing as the political one.
  • Back observation of the protest actions: the black and white 2009-07-09 17:34 The Georgian opposition has already announced its plan of actions relating to the meeting of the US Vice President Joseph Biden. On the whole, the oppositionists have won the support of the diplomatic corps in respect of the excessive rigidness of the pending amendments to the law which are going to make the meetings and other protest actions subject to the authorities’ control. The decoration of the coming meeting has also been designed: the oppositionists are going to be dressed in white. Moreover, one more oppositional party might also appear by the time of the American guest’s arrival.
  • The law is between democracy and demagogy 2009-07-08 18:11 These last days, the public attention in Georgia and abroad has been drawn to the meeting of the Russian and American presidents. However, the domestic infighting has not been given up in Tbilisi. As soon as the Moscow summit was over, the Georgian media again became overwhelmed with the politicians’ mutual accusations. The reason for discord was the amendments to the legislation, which are going to be used by the parliamentarians to squeeze the opposition from Rustaveli avenue.
Analysis
The Caucasian chalk circle 04.12.2008  |  10:10

8/9/9/899.jpegLeonid Zhukhovitsky is a famous Russian writer and publicist. His works have been translated into 40 languages around the world. Today he shared his views on the situation in the South Caucasus with ‘GeorgiaTimes' readers.

Not much time has passed since August - yet if the Caucasian war has not been forgotten as such, it has certainly been consigned to the back burner. It is as if the zone of recent fighting has been outlined in chalk - as if to warn people to enter with caution. Occasionally politicians half-heartedly scold Georgia for its aggression or reproach Russia for its excessive reaction. It's just as in the old joke: whether he stole the fur coat, or it was stolen off him - either way, it's an unseemly incident. Essentially, the international political elite has seen through this localized Caucasian cataclysm with unusual coolness: really, the Western powers couldn't give a damn about Georgia, South Ossetia just doesn't exist for them, the path of the planned oil pipeline hasn't been cut anywhere - so is there any need to fuss about trivial matters?

I, however, think that the events that occurred on the southern portion of the Caucasus deserve some serious analysis. Any conflict in which great powers are involved in one way or another is a grenade that is capable of exploding a larger powder keg under different circumstances. Remember what trivialities gave rise to what is now called international terrorism! Thank goodness that the five-day war did not dislodge the fragile supports holding up the rickety edifice of international order. But it could have. Unfortunately, it could have.

I am not one of the enraptured supporters of our current regime, I see a multitude of mistakes in its actions and consider it my duty as a writer to speak openly about them. But what can one reproach the recently elected Russian president for in relation to the events in the Caucasus?

Did he choose the wrong course of action? But it is only possible to talk about a mistaken choice when there is something to choose from. And did Dmitry Medvedev have even the slightest possible choice?

Georgian tanks were flattening Tskhinvali, the city had been destroyed, people were dying or fleeing to the north. What should have done? Ask that the Security Council be convened? One of the Western countries would certainly have used its veto right. What else - wait for the General Assembly to be convened? But with modern-day weaponry it would only have needed three days to reduce the whole of South Ossetia to rubble. How many people would have died - five, seven, fifteen thousand? After all, eight in ten inhabitants of the republic have Russian passports. Who needs a government which is incapable of defending its own citizens? Medvedev had no option - he sent troops across the mountain range simply because he did not have any opportunity to act otherwise.

It is said that Russia's reaction was disproportional, that it would have been sufficient to force Saakashvili's soldiers back beyond South Ossetia. Why did they need to take Gori and bring their army into Poti? But an army that has not withdrawn far can regroup, reinforcements would have come from Gori, all sorts of well-wishers would have brought new weapons to Poti by sea, and the localized conflict would have developed into a prolonged war with regular firing and periodic diversions. "Forcing them into peace" - this is not particularly elegant wording, but it quite accurately reflects the essence of the situation: it was necessary to take away the red-faced Georgian leader's inclination for war at least until the end of his presidency. Many Western politicians have berated Medvedev for his brutal response to this aggression - but has anybody suggested a more sensible course of action?

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